Ventura County Real Estate Blog

Cherry Hill at Moorpark Highlands

2010-04-05T20:11:00.000-07:00

Cherry Hill at Moorpark Highlands

Located just North of Moorpark, California is one of the few remaining new home tracts in what is called the Moorpark Highlands. The Moorpark Highlands is a very large area of new homes which includes a number of different tract communities built by several distinguished home developers. Ranging in ascending order of size and price these include Pardee Homes - Waverly Place condominiums (sold out); KB Homes - Sterling Heights Community of single family homes (sold out) and Toll Brothers - Country Club Estates at Moorpark (sold out).

I may be missing a tract or two, tucked away among the two massive hilltop areas, but Cherry Hill by Pardee Homes appears to be the last major new home development still actively building new 3 to 5 bedroom homes.

Cherry Hill homes are built to three basic floor plans and with 5 different styles:
French, Early Californian, Tuscan, Spanish Monterey and Coastal. Contact Pardee Homes at PardeeHomes.com to download pictures and floorplans of what these styles look like. Plan 1 homes are 2600 square foot homes, Plane 2 are 2900 square foot homes and Plane 3 are just over 3100 square feet (3500 square feet with optional loft).

The homes are located in a gated community and closely spaced up the side of a large hill on maybe half a dozen streets. Many of these home sites were built with an eye to a view of the surrounding mountains. I would say the views are above average for many new home communities.

The experienced new home shopper will note that model homes are usually lavishly upgraded with all the bells and whistles and do not always closely reflect a standard new construction home. It’s also worth note, that if the developer goofed somewhere or just did something silly on a model home, then he probably did it more than once in succeeding homes.

Everyone wants to know price. These homes have dropped considerably in price. I have a price sheet from September 2008 and one from this week – March 2010. Here is what has happened in 1½ years.

Plan 1 - was $734,475 now $692,000 which is a 43K price drop

Plan 2 - was $775,400 now $689,150 which is a 86K price drop

Plan 3 - was $797,975 now $740,225 which is a 57K price drop

Wow! – kind of takes your breath away, especially if you were an original buyer. That is pretty typical of what has happened with most new construction. What an opportunity if you are just now in the market!

Along with the advantage of interest rates around 5% and both the 6.5% federal tax credits for current home owners and 8.5% state credits for current home owners buying new construction homes, makes this a very rare time for people who want to move up. It’s the perfect storm for buyers of new construction homes. Unless the federal tax credit is renewed soon, it is set to expire for new offers at the end of this month (April 30).

What is bad about these prices. They do not include the Mello Roos that comes with each home. See my blog about Mello Roos for more complete information, but this is basically a way of taxing the individual home owners for city services – which include a new school district for the homeowners – but without having to call it a tax.

The Mello Roos runs about 1.9% of the home’s purchase price per year. The good news is that the school district has seriously considered not accepting a new school site for Moorpark Highlands. I don’t profess to be an expert about the local School District politics but I do know that most school districts are hurting for money right now like everyone else. They are not inclined to want to budget for more teachers, facilities and maintenance, even when they are mostly provided for by the Mello Roos.

What does that translate to for new home owners. Something even more rare in new home construction. A break on the Mello Roos. It could be a 30% to 40% reduction on the annual Mello Roos for those new home purchasers according to the sales counselors. Not sure what that does to class size in existing schools.

How big is Cherry Hill? There will be 149 units built total. A total of 4 -5 homes are now - or will be - available by the end of June in the 3 different plan models. Counting the 4 homes available, I believe there have been a total of 92 homes already released for sale or sold. Mostly sold. That figures out to about 60% of the last new homes are built and sold. Just over 50 homes have yet to be built at Cherry Hill.

Plan 1

Plan 1 has the master bedroom downstairs and it usually opens onto the back patio. There is a second bedroom at the opposite corner of the home which would make an excellent “granny flat” or bedroom for a teenager with a loud music problem. The second bedroom has it’s own full bath and is wedged between the garage at the front, and a den or optional 3rd bedroom as you move back towards the center of the house.

The den can be an office or built as another bedroom. There already is a formal living room and another family room, so this room has many good possibilities depending on your needs.

The kitchen is one of the primary home status symbols and is of course quite nicely done. In keeping with other new home developments, the kitchen faces the family room so that Mom can enjoy conversation with her guests/family while preparing all the holiday meals. The family room and kitchen face out to the backyard through large windows, so the kids playing there can be observed without worry.

There is one upstairs bedroom with a full bath or it can be a loft/office with additional storage in what would have been the bathroom.

Things I liked.

The front entry has a closet. There are so many new homes being built without a cloakroom or front coat closet. I guess if you live in California, you aren’t expected to wear a coat.
The master bath has the bathtub oriented out from the wall so that you can enter from either side. The two vanities are separated by the tub so you don’t mix up your Rogaine with your wife’s Clarol.
The large walk-in closet has two doors, one at either end, but guys know better than to expect to use any of it.

Things I didn’t like.

The back yard is smaller than other models because there are more ground floor bedrooms for the same size lot as the other two model plans.
This home has a 2 car garage separated by the front door with a 3rd garage on the other side but facing parallel to the street. If there is any other car in the driveway, your aren’t going to get a vehicle out of that garage. Makes a nice workshop though. Also, if both garage doors are open, it makes your home look more like a downtown parking garage.

Plan 2

The ground floor of this two floor home is laid out with the entryway facing a long hallway that runs beside the staircase as you walk to the rear of the home. There is a wall that separates the home into basically a front half and a rear half. Each half contains 2 rooms which open to the central hallway.

The formal living room is followed by the dining area and then the wall. On the other side is the kichen facing to the rear of the house through the family room. At the intersection of the kitchen and family room is a hallway running off to the left side of the home where there is small bedroom and full bath. There is also direct access to the 3 car, tandem garage from this hallway. This is almost a 3,000 square foot home, so there are 2 air conditioning units at the rear of the home. They are fairly quiet but are located just outside the ground floor bedroom. I think this location is unfortunate in terms of view and noise - which isn’t bad – it just doesn’t need to be that way.

Upstairs is a spacious family room / loft area which was modeled as a family room. It can be built as a 5th bedroom. Toward the center of the home and opening directly into the family room is a full bath with double vanities for the bedrooms and loft use. To the rear of the family room / loft is a doorway opening to a side to side hallway. Along the hallway are two separate bedrooms with their own doorways. At the far end of the hallway is the upstairs laundry.

The master bedroom is quite comfortably large and looks out upon the backyard. The master bath has a separate closet for the toilet, which might be a bit tight if you are inside trying to shut the door. The double vanity is side by side with the tub and shower enclosure immediately behind the sinks. There is a large single door walk-in closet at the far end of the master bath.

Things I liked.

The loft area is upstairs away from the family room downstairs. If adults are entertaining downstairs, the kids don’t have to shut themselves away in their bedrooms, yet they are far enough away not to cause a noise distraction if they want to watch tv or play video games.
The back yard is considerably deeper than plan 1, since more of the bedrooms are upstairs in this model.
The street appeal is nicer in my opinion since you have only a 2 car garage door in front, along with a front door that is not tucked away between garages. A nice cut glass door or carved hardwood door can really enhance a home’s appearance. Also the living room window fronts the home, so it is possible to see when family or guests have arrived.
The model had a nice balcony off the master bedroom with enough depth for table and chairs to fit comfortably.

Things I did not like.

The downstairs is not as open a floor plan as the plan 1. It has a strong front and back feel to it.
The coat closet is located under the staircase or worse, around the corner in the hallway leading to the back bedroom. That only works well if you come into the house from the garage.
The upstairs loft has a full bath directly off it. A half bath would work just as well. It forces the occupants of the two bedrooms behind the family room to walk through the family room / loft in order to use the bath or shower. That would also force the family room occupants to go downstairs or to the master bath to use a bathroom.
It’s probably just me, but if you are carrying on a conversation with your spouse, while dressing/undressing in the master bedroom, it’s going to be like listening to a train going by. One of you walks away from the bedroom to the walk-in closet, which is past the toilet closet, past the vanities and tub to the far end, where you walk through a single doorway and turn either right or left to find your hangar at either end of the walk-in.
Maybe they could install a walk-in closet intercom and video monitor?! Maybe have a satellite feed to the bedroom.
Also, if you had an infant, you would want to keep the little one in their crib with you in the master bedroom. A separate nursery would be rather difficult to reach quickly from the master and way far away from anyplace downstairs. This is a better home for older kids.

Plan 3

This is a puzzle palace. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a very comfortable puzzle palace and with the optional loft it can be pushing 3,500 square feet. It just doesn’t flow. If you were in the Navy you would love it. Like a miniature cruiser, it has all these little hallways (passageways) and doorways (hatches). The upstairs bathrooms and laundry are tucked away in hidden places. You’d need movie theater lights to find your way around upstairs after dark. The bathrooms do offer better privacy and access to nearby bedrooms than the Plan 2. There is a downstairs bedroom but it is tiny and makes a better office or hobby room.

The downstairs is similar to the Plan 2 in that you have a definite front half and back half to the home, but the kitchen has a massive crescent shaped island that should have it’s own zip code. There is also a breakfast nook that has two outside walls as it pushes out a bit into the backyard. There is plenty of natural light to eat your outmeal and yogurt by, (or eggs and bacon if you wife isn’t watching).

Things I liked.

The living room is an actual room, not an area.
The kitchen has upgraded appliances and cabinet quality. The breakfast nook is fun.
The master bedroom can be built with a good sized balcony and the bedroom at the front of the house has a nice long balcony as well. Some of these homes have breathtaking bedroom and balcony views of the surrounding mountains.

Things I didn’t like.

Besides the intricate floor plan, the master bedroom is directly above the large screen tv in the downstairs family room. Most of these homes will not have the optional upstairs loft, so late night entertaining will probably happen directly under your bedroom slippers in the
family room below.

Summary

These are very comfortable homes in a very scenic location. I like the room sizes for the most part, though some of the bedrooms are merely adequate. The homes are sensibly designed so that space is more often used for practical comfort rather than to impress. Even though there is a minimum setback between homes, you have a good chance of finding at least one room in your home with a view that includes more than your neighbors kitchen clock.

The driveways are usually large enough to accommodate at least 2 cars and there is a bit of front yard for most homes. Things just aren’t as cramped as lower priced new homes tend to be and though the streets are still a bit narrow, you can safely park on them.

There is a good deal of flexibility in how you can have your home built and that adds a lot of creative individuality to the neighborhood. It doesn’t have the production line feel of manufactured homes that so many other developments have.

This is a pleasant upscale community with quality homes and with a better than average location.

The prices are still considerable and the Mello Roos doesn’t help, but if you can afford one of these homes you’ll experience a very pampered Southern California lifestyle.

Happy House Hunting
Mark Thorngren

(805) 504-0228
www.markthorngren.com

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Spring 2009 - Camarillo Market Report

2009-06-01T17:14:00.000-07:00

There are likely more months ahead of gradually falling home prices & stricter loan requirements. However, for qualified home buyers, the low interest rates, large home selection and considerably reduced home prices are providing some remarkable opportunities.

In Ventura County over the last 12 months, home prices have fallen 38%! Homes are selling at an average of 97% of list price, when they are priced near market average. This is a strong sign of the beginnings of market recovery.

There are some rather compelling indicators from a variety of sources that indicate continued positive pressures on our markets since the start of the year. Anything being offered for sale for less than $500,000 and especially in the $350,000 and below range is being snapped up by investors and first time home buyers.It is not unusual for me to call a listing agent for my clients and be told there are 20 to 25 offers!

This is like the market 3 years ago but in reverse.

Prices have fallen so far that first time buyers are jumping at the opportunity to realize their home ownership dream.At the same time, investors are snapping up homes with all cash offers making it very difficult for many first time buyers to compete. Their frustration is that list prices are in their price range, but competition from investors and austere bank terms drive the actual sale prices much higher.

There are still a number of banks that have not figured out that a short sale is an opportunity for them to cut their losses. Some of these banks take 8 to 10 months to approve these short sales and consequently they loose numerous deals from frustrated and impatient buyers. Often a buyer waits months for bank approval of short sale, only to have the bank foreclose on the property and auction it off for many thousands less than their offer! It makes no sense and can't be predicted.

First time home buyers need to take a hard look at their needs and be realistic about the cost of home ownership. You simply cannot low ball a listing with a reasonable expectation of success now. The market is much more competitive than a year ago. The days of offering $50,000 less than market average for a home are coming to an end.

Your realtor should be doing a Comparative Market Analysis on any home you want to make an offer on.Once you know the market value of the home, make an offer based on the market price. If you have taken the time to be pre-approved with a lender, you'll know already if this home makes financial sense.

Be prepared to negotiate and expect competition! If you cannot be flexible in price and terms, this market will be extremely difficult for you. A take it or leave it attitude will not serve a buyer well either, and many folks have lost wonderful opportunities for home ownership for the sake of a few dollars.

One rule of thumb to keep in mind is: for every $1,000 you borrow for a home, it increases your mortgage cost by about $7 to $8 dollars. Develop your buying strategy, negotiate price and terms based on market price, be pre-approved with your lender, and beware of short sales. Be flexible and have a backup plan.

Let your real estate professional guide you through the 30 pages of the offer process and handle all the followup escrow details. Expect them to schedule and track all the inspection, termite, and home repair and home warranty details for you and to provide you with experience based guidance for a successful transaction.

You can buy a home for a lower price than we have seen in many years.

You are invited to explore the latest in Video Real Estate News and Information at http://www.RealtyTimes.com/REUv/MarkThorngren. Produced and updated daily, it provides comprehensive upbeat information on the latest developments in our fast changing market.

ZIP Code: 93010

Approximate Location Boundaries: Camarillo straddles the 101 highway West of Thousand Oaks/Newbury park and East of Oxnard. Stick a pin on a roadmap showing the 101 between LA and Santa Barbara and Camarillo will be right in the middle.

Location Characteristics: Mild Mediterranean Climate year round. Excellent schools and 20 minutes from the beach. No smog, great shopping and friendly small town feel. Camarillo is a showpiece for Ventura County. A very upscale town of 63,000 people, with summer "Concerts in the Park", Frequent community events and celebrations, this town has an abundance of attractions.

LA is an hour South and separated by a mountain range. Beach and harbor activities are available within a few minutes drive for boaters, swimmers, divers or a romantic dining experience at one of our many premium restaurants.

Camarillo has it's own premium outlet mall for upscale shopping at discount prices. Hiking, horseback riding, off-road biking, ATV exploring and fishing are all within an hours drive at scores of State Parks and National Recreation Areas. Take a boat trip out to the Channel Islands for a unique camping or hiking experience, or observe the twice a year dolphin and whale migration back and forth to Mexico.

Visit http://www.markthorngren.com/ for access to local home searches, more blogs, listings, real estate reports, and many to local schools, churches and city resources.

It's important that you know, that I do have time for you, your family, friends and business associates who could use my help right now.

Warmest Regards,
Mark Thorngren

Office Direct (805) 504-0228
mark@markthorngren.com

Sedona at Dos Vientos in Thousand Oaks

2009-05-19T21:41:00.000-07:00

Sedona
at Dos Vientos Ranch

There is a newer section of Thousand Oaks set within an elevated bowl surrounded by the gorgeous and scenic, Santa Monica Mountains. Located just north of the Pacific Coast and perched at the very western edge of the Conejo Valley Shelf, this area is bordered by Malibu to the Southeast, the much lower Oxnard Plain to the West and Newbury Park to the North East.

Drive down Borchard Road away from the older neighborhoods of Newbury park, up and over the Potrero Ridge line, and back down the other side into the valley bowl that is Dos Vientos Ranch. As you coast down the hill through the rustic, rocky, cactus and yucca lined hillsides, you follow a gentle left curving roadway until you begin to glimpse the sprawling, stucco tribute to expensive tract homes that is Dos Vientos Ranch.

In the far Southwest corner in a little L- shaped bowl of rocks, cactus and coyotes is Sedona, the newest tract. These are roughly 4500 sq ft to 6,000 sq ft homes which are offered in what the developer calls Italianate, Spanish and Tuscan Elevations. Sixty nine homes are currently planned which range in price from roughly $1,446,000 to about $1,600,000.

There are 7 phases planned and they are currently selling the 8 homes of Phase 1. These 8 homes were put on the market Saturday the 16th of May. Today, Monday the 18th, four of the homes have already sold! When my wife and I visited the site on Sunday, there were cars lining both sides of the road, for a block on either side of the model homes. Clearly, our newspapers and tv have failed to convince these people how bad our economy is, and how poorly real estate is faring. Imagine that.

The Phase 1 homes are being offered at a “low introductory price.” Each of these 8 homes is being offered with an additional $25,000 worth of interior options. Buyers can pick their lot, or they can pick the model of home they want, but the builder has already determined which models will be built on which lots.

By the way, the developer has the A- team working to serve prospective buyers. I was very impressed by the professionalism of the Sales Counselors I met. They were friendly and composed even when there were 3 and 4 groups of people actively seeking their help at any given time. They answered all my toughest questions with no dodges or excuses and they were extremely knowledgeable.

Build time is about 9 months with the Phase 1 homes projected to be move-in ready next January 2010. I was told that Phase 2 may be built earlier than originally planned if demand continues, with a possible March 2010 move-in.

Buyers are expected to pre-qualify with either Chase or Bank of America, but they can use any bank for their loan. Bank of America is offering a long term rate lock of up to a year to cover build time on these homes.

There is no Mello-Roos on these homes ( see my blog on Mello-Roos ) but there is a $266/month combined HOA. A Master Association covers the cost of keeping the brush clear around the homes for fire protection, and a few other things like building and maintaining the Park Center. The Sedona Association takes care of the maintenance of the security gates, roads and walkways.

These are big homes, lavishly presented. Myself, I think some of the homes “flow” better than others. The models are not always very representative of what you can make the homes into either. There are numerous layouts available for the two story homes but only one example of each model is presented.

The two story models are the Santa Barbara and the La Jolla (which was my personal favorite). These homes have the option of a 3 car tandem garage with an optional bedroom and bathroom “suite” or what most of us would call a great big granny flat. Depending on the model, you can have a 5 car garage or you can substitute another Den, or you can move the dining room or granny flat location if you choose a 3 car garage.

Pick a design with up to 6 bedrooms, or fewer bedrooms and additional recreation/ family rooms. There are a lot of design opportunities for buyers to review before their specific home design is frozen. I like that the developer is offering a bit of flexibility to his buyers.

The thing I really like about the two story homes is the use of outside space. This is featured prominently in the marketing of these homes as well. Simply put, the designs encourage home owners to adapt the many courtyards, covered porticos, balconies, decks and covered loggias as everyday living space. The built-in barbeques, outside fireplaces, relaxing fountains and beautifully tiled courtyards encourage you to pull up a big comfortable chair and kick back with friends or family while everyone enjoys the open air and sunshine.

The covered loggia/balcony off of the master bedroom in the Santa Barbara model is particularly inviting, with gorgeous views and cool breezes and yet, a bit more privacy than most balcony designs. It has outdoor drapes which can be pulled across each side to enclose the room around a gas log fireplace. Very romantic.

The Montecito Plan is essentially a 1-story home with a second story recreation room. It is a 4 bedroom home with a 3 car tandem garage. Featuring a central courtyard, it tends to be a bit smaller than the 2-story homes having just under 5,000 sq ft. of living space. Three different walls of the courtyard have doors leading into the home, and an outside staircase leads up from the courtyard wall to the second story recreation room . This is just a little weird for me. Like the movie “Labyrinth”, you have to wonder what happens if you choose the wrong door.

The rest of the interior is like walking around a squarish mall. A narrow hallway runs in front of each of the bedrooms and widens out in front of the Den and Living Room. Like an echo of the nearby courtyard, an open dining room occupies a smaller framed area within a central atrium. The hallway skirts the dining room on two sides and runs past the Family Room entry on the left and Dining Room to the right. It narrows back down as it passes by the powder room on the right and on to the Master Bedroom entry on the left. I swear I passed some joggers along the way.

The Family Room is the largest room in the house and is open to the huge kitchen. I liked this combination layout. Each of these rooms has a nice outside view and backyard access. The kitchen has a large island with tall low-backed chairs for snacking. It adjoins a breakfast nook which is large enough for a smaller table. Unfortunately, you need to hire a guide to get from the kitchen through the family room and over to the main dining room.

The next largest room appears to be the Master Bedroom. The bedroom opens through double glass doors to the rear, outdoor patio. On the other side of the bedroom, a tall, rather narrow arched doorway leads to the Master Bath. There are two recessed reading lights in the ceiling above the headboard of the bed, but they are so high up in the 12’ coffered ceiling that they are useless for reading. There is a thin screen tv on the distant wall opposite the bed, but you need binoculars to see what’s on.

The Master Bath is quite large with separate tub and shower enclosures. The shower is nicely tiled and big enough for about a dozen of your closest friends. Strangely enough, the jetted jacuzzi tub is a mere 6’, two person bucket by comparison. I also think the tub surround should be made of a material that wouldn’t be slippery when wet. Maybe a small hand rail would be useful as well.

The walk-in “his closet” reminds me of my college dorm room and across the hallway, something about 3 times larger is obviously the “her closet”. Most of the models I saw have rather sparsely furnished walk-ins. Maybe a shelf, but not much in the way of quality wall organizers or center room fixtures. Lighting in these walk-in closets was similar to my garage and is a missed opportunity for the developer to please women with lots of needs.

The Monterey Plan is the other single story floor plan and does not have a model. The floor plan appears to be identical to the Montecito Plan but without the second story recreation room.

I have one major concern with each of these homes. The downstairs view for most of them is not much more than a brick wall or embankment. The best views were usually upstairs views from the front or rear of the homes. Being a tract home, each home has minimal set back from its’ neighbor, with homes in higher elevations enjoying greater privacy. This is a disappointment for homes in this price range.

My wife was a bit put off by the rather imposing kitchens. They are appropriately huge with ovens that look more like stereos - sprouting buttons, gauges and switches. The refrigerator in one model had 2 doors that were each about 3 feet wide and heavy as a safe. Once opened, the refrigerator shelving was only about a foot deep. Forget about walking by an open refrigerator door, it’s like crossing the border. You have to wait for the door to close.

The central island stands about chest high on me and a bit higher for my wife. The cabinets were fabulous but again a bit high. My wife could not see inside the microwave mounted on the overhead cabinets. If you are an NBA basketball player, you’ll love these kitchens.

Some of the family rooms were centered on fireplaces with the entertainment center off to one side. Other family rooms were centered on the entertainment center with the fireplace off to one side. Personally, I am more of a tired tv person in the evening than a romantic fireplace person. I’ve been married a long time.

A word about presentation. I expect to see all the most expensive upgrades on new home models. Designer nick-nacks and leather furniture do well in these homes. However, please don’t try to sell me a 6,000 sq ft home by employing undersized furniture and beds in the bedrooms! It’s a bit tawdry and silly in these huge homes.

If you want me to see the genius of design in your outside living areas, then impress me. Don’t stick a mid-priced home depot barbeque in the middle of a huge stucco wrap around. Show me some barbeque tech and a built-in refrigerator at least. Also, explain to your interior designer that outside design means not putting candle decorations in the sun. They melt all over the furniture!

From a strictly safety point of view, I was glad to see home sprinkler systems standard in these homes. I was a bit concerned that none of the second floor homes had a second way downstairs other than the main staircase. That might be an issue in a home fire. Why doesn’t someone develop a stylish way to hide a few fire extinguishers in these huge homes? Once the main sprinkler system trips, water damage can get expensive.

Speaking of technology, I didn’t see much. Lots of extra bedrooms/dens, but I didn’t see a single home theater. I saw no integrated solar panels powering these huge homes even though we live in an area of the world that just screams for them. Many local residences and businesses have already adapted them as eco-friendly and economic windfalls. There is no voice activated lighting or music. No adjustable polarizing windows on the sun side of the home or even personalized door locks. I guess that is just too much to ask for.

I did see 3 air-conditioning units lined up just outside the window of a ground floor bedroom in a 1.5 million dollar model home. Yuuch!

We all know a large part of our population is rapidly aging, but I saw none of the new elevator designs which are now available to two story residences. These new elevators are concealed behind what looks like closet doors, yet are wide enough for wheelchairs. They open up a whole new market for two story structures and enable long term home owners to maintain the full utilization of their homes, even if their owners develop physical limitations.

The lots themselves speak for the way our culture seems to have changed in the last few decades. The tract is locked away behind some really pretty wrought iron gates. Presumably this is for enhanced security and privacy. It just doesn’t work. People just follow each other through the opened gates.

If you are serious about security, you can employ an additional entry arm to separate individual vehicles as they pass through the gate or you hire real, live gate security. I’ve seen many less expensive neighborhoods with better security than this – (see Victoria Estates in Oxnard).

The individual lots remind me of pictures of aircraft parking revetments in a war zone. Stone walls atop earthen embankments surround each lot on the sides and back. It looks for all the world like someone hooked a tow bar to the front of each home and shoved it into its own parking spot. Whatever happened to neighborhoods with lot lines made of flowering hedges and property lines of fragrant evergreens? Sorry, I’m showing my age.

Considering what people seem to want in a new home these days, I give these homes a solid B. Although the design of the exterior spaces on some of the two story models is intriguing, I didn’t see much real innovation or serious new technology. These are just nice, big, expensive tract homes like they have been building for the last 10 years.

Just the way I see it.
Mark Thorngren

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(805) 504-0228
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Camarillo's Montelena 1 Tract

2009-05-11T16:09:00.000-07:00

Camarillo’s Montelena 1 Tract

There are many wonderful neighborhoods in Camarillo, but one of the nicer mid-priced tracts is Montelena 1. Built 1990 through 1995, these are very comfortable Mission Oaks homes, with a number of view locations. They are 3 and 4 bedroom homes with 2.5 to 3.5 bathrooms which range from about 1800 sq ft to almost 2800 sq ft. Lots range in size from about 6,000 sq ft to over 9,500 sq ft. The homes are all uniform stucco with red tile roofs, built with many luxury amenities, nicely landscaped and with no HOA!

The homes in Montelena 1 are located in the Mission Oaks area with a hilltop view overlooking the Calleguas Creek. Flynn and Lewis Roads are part of the expansive view to the North and West with mountain and partial ocean views on the horizon. This is a fairly quiet neighborhood with limited access to the busier streets of Creekside Drive and Mission Oaks Boulevard.

The neighborhood itself resembles a flattened loop with 3 streets and a cul-de-sac. Via Pacheco and Paseo Montelena have some amazing view locations, while Via Cupertino runs a block behind the cliffside homes. Chula Vista Court is a small cul-de-sac off of Paseo Montelena with a quiet, friendly feel.

Most of the homes I’ve seen have generous back yards that often sport large patio decks (especially the cliffside homes) or very private, lushly landscaped gardens. More than a few of these homes have gorgeous inground pools, built-in barbeques and decorator deck furniture.

Most of the kitchens I have seen are expensively upgraded with granite countertops and stainless appliances. They usually face the backyard and often have part of the valley view. Living rooms and family rooms enjoy vaulted ceilings and at least one fireplace. The master bedrooms are usually downstairs with backyard views or patio access. Huge master baths sport upgrades that may include double marble vanities, separate tub and tile shower enclosures, designer light fixtures and cabinetry.

There are usually 2 to 3 upstairs bedrooms which are quite a bit smaller than the downstairs master and a bit tight in my opinion for a home in this price range. That would be my main criticism of these homes. If Mom and Dad are using the downstairs master and the kids are upstairs, it’s okay. However, if grandma is living here or one of the kids have moved back in, the upstairs bedrooms are small.

Most homes have a downstairs hallway half bath that opens to the living room and the laundry is usually downstairs as well. Inside access to the two car garage is internal also, and a very few homes even have a 3 car garage. If you are retired or the kids are away at college, you essentially have a single story home with upstairs office and guest room. Pretty darn comfortable and often with the perfect backyard view for a couple to enjoy at sunset with an ice cold beverage or maybe a little barbeque with friends.

Eleven homes have come to market in the last year.

Two properties expired last summer after 6 month listings when they didn’t sell at $715,500 and $719,500 respectively.

Five homes have sold for an average of $635,000 with the highest sale price at $687,000 for a 2,400 sq ft home and the lowest sold at $600,000 for a 1,800 sq ft home.

There are four homes actively being marketed in this tract for an average listing price of just over $623,000. The lowest priced home is listed at $539,000 and 1,800 sq ft (it’s a short sale), while the highest priced home is listed at $690,000 for 1,800 sq ft. There is one home priced at $679,900 with almost 2,800 sq ft and a beautiful backyard pool.

By my calculations only one of these eleven homes was a distressed sale, meaning only one home was a short sale or foreclosure. That makes this tract a very stable investment for any home buyer. Just the same, values appear to have eroded about $1,000 to $1,500 a month over the last year. This compares to over $4,000 a month in some Oxnard neighborhoods with even larger, newer homes. (see my blog on Victoria Estates).

Four or five years ago, these homes were selling for the high $600,000’s to low $700,000 range, so they really have not come down as much as I would have expected. These homes are very comfortable, built in a premium location, and are a very solid investment for those with the means to take advantage of our current market.

Warmest Regards,
Mark Thorngren

www.markthorngren.com
mark@markthorngren.com
(805) 504-0228

Will New Government Housing Aid Help Me?

2009-02-22T11:08:00.000-08:00

Ventura County Star Article from 22 February 2009

By J.W. Elphinstone and Alan ZibelAP real estate writersSunday, February 22, 2009

Between the $75 billion foreclosure plan President Barack Obama revealed on Wednesday and the $787 billion economic stimulus he signed a day earlier, the government is promising a range of programs aimed at getting new help to homeowners.

But not everyone who needs help will get it.

While some homeowners who owe more than their house is worth will get help, many of those who are most severely “underwater” in their mortgages won’t get bailed out.

So who does qualify for the assistance? What exactly will they get — and when will they get it?

Here are some questions and answers:

Q: What if I’m a homeowner on the brink of foreclosure?

A: Homeowners who are behind on their mortgage payments or struggling to keep current may qualify for a mortgage modification under the Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan that Obama unveiled Wednesday.

To qualify, the house must be your primary residence, your mortgage payment must be greater than 31 percent of your monthly gross income and your loan mustn’t exceed current Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loan limits, which vary by region and max out at nearly $729,750.

Owners of two-, three- and four-unit properties are eligible as long as they live in one unit as a primary residence. Only first mortgages are eligible for a modification. More detailed requirements will be available March 4.

Q: What if I’m not near foreclosure? Do I get any assistance?

A: Borrowers who are current on their mortgages but can’t refinance into lower interest-rate loans because their homes have fallen in value are eligible to refinance into a 30- or 15-year, fixed-rate loan under the plan, but only if their loan is held by mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

To qualify, homeowners can’t owe more than 105 percent of their home’s current value on their first mortgage. Borrowers with a second mortgage are eligible as long as their first mortgage isn’t more than 105 percent of their home’s value. The value of your property will be determined after you apply to refinance.

Skeptics say it’s going to be difficult for borrowers to figure out whether their loans are held by Fannie or Freddie. “I’m not sure people are always going to get a straight answer,” said Bert Ely, a banking industry consultant in Alexandria, Va.

Q: Any breaks for first-time homebuyers?

A: Under the economic stimulus plan that Obama signed Tuesday, first-time homebuyers who purchase a home between Jan. 1 and Dec. 1 will be eligible for a tax credit of 10 percent of the value of the home, up to $8,000.

Homeowners don’t have to pay back this credit over the next 15 years, the way they had to with the $7,500 tax credit enacted last summer. However, homebuyers would have to repay the credit if they sold their homes within three years.

First-time buyers are defined as those who haven’t owned a house for at least three years.

Q: Any other breaks for current homeowners?

A: Homeowners also can get a tax credit of up to $1,500 by making their homes more energy efficient this year or next. Many projects qualify, such as installing energy-efficient windows, doors, furnaces or air conditioners, or adding insulation. Homeowners can get back 30 percent of their expenses, up to $1,500.

Q: Will there be more assistance down the road?

A: The Obama administration is working with lawmakers to pass a bill that will allow bankruptcy judges to modify the terms of primary home loans in court.

The lending industry is fighting this plan, arguing that it will make lending a risky proposition in the future. But with support mounting, the industry’s efforts are primarily focused on limiting the scope of the bankruptcy proposal, rather than blocking it completely.

Q: How soon can I expect to take advantage of these benefits or aid?

A: The refinancing and loan modification programs start March 4. The first-time homebuyer tax credit is in effect from the first of the year through the end of November. The “green” home tax credit applies to energy-efficient improvements made through 2010.

Q: What should I do until March 4?

A: If you’re interested in refinancing or applying for a loan modification, collect all necessary documents to give to your lender.

These include your most recent pay stubs and/or other documents detailing the income you receive, your most recent tax return, information about your second mortgage if you have one, payment information on your credit cards if you carry a monthly balance and payment information on all other loans, like student loans and car loans.

Q: What if I’m facing foreclosure now, and can’t wait until March 4?

A: Contact your mortgage servicer or mortgage lender. Many lenders said they will postpone foreclosure sales on home loans that could qualify for the modification.

Stimulus Plan Includes Tax Breaks for Individuals

2009-02-22T10:52:00.000-08:00

Article from Ventura County Star - 22 February, 2009

By Michelle Singletarymailto:Singletarysingletarym@washpost.com
Sunday, February 22, 2009

The stimulus plan that President Barack Obama has signed into law contains a few tax treats for individuals. But before you jump for joy, please pay close attention to the details so you know exactly which provisions can benefit you, and how.

One of the biggest breaks being trumpeted is a new $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit. I say “new” because some believe it completely replaces the $7,500 tax credit passed as part of last year’s Housing and Economic Recovery Act.

It does not.

There are two breaks for first-time homeowners in the tax code now. Which credit you can take depends on when you purchased your home.

If you’re a first-time homebuyer and you purchased your home on or after April 8, 2008, and by Dec. 31, 2008, you do not qualify for the $8,000 first-time homebuyer’s credit recently signed into law by Obama.

You can still take the $7,500 tax credit, but you have to pay that back because it’s not really a credit. It’s a 15-year, interest-free loan from the IRS.

The $8,000 tax credit is available for qualifying home purchases made from Jan. 1, 2009, until Dec. 1, 2009. Did you notice I wrote Dec. 1?

That’s how it’s worded in the law.

I know there will be people who will read Dec. 1 as the end of the year, Dec. 31 — and those who make that mistake may be in for a nasty surprise. You naturally would think the cutoff would be the end of the year. After committing to spend $787 billion dollars, it’s idiotic that homebuyers weren’t given the extra month to qualify for this credit.

At least the $8,000 is a true credit, that is, if you don’t plan on moving within three years. A tax credit is much more valuable than a deduction. A credit reduces dollar for dollar the amount of tax you owe. A deduction merely reduces the amount of your income that is taxable.

If you take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit and then sell your home or it no longer remains your principal residence within 36 months of the purchase date, you will have to pay back the full $8,000.

However, as with the $7,500 credit, if you sell and your gain is less than the credit, then you only have to repay up to the amount of the gain. If you die before the credit/loan is repaid, any outstanding amount is forgiven.

I’ve never liked the $7,500 credit because of its lengthy loan feature. Repayment for the $7,500 begins the second tax year after you take the credit. So if you claim the credit on your 2008 tax return, you have to begin paying back the money in 2010.

There’s something else to take into account. If your status is married filing separately, you can’t get the full $8,000 credit or $7,500 credit.

Instead, you get $4,000 of the $8,000 credit and $3,750 of the $7,500 credit. People filing as single are eligible for the full credit. Don’t complain to me about the difference in treatment between a single tax filer and married filing separately. It is what it is.

If you are still not sure which first-time homebuyer credit you qualify for, call the IRS. You don’t want to end up owing money on a loan you thought was a credit.

Here are several other tax breaks passed into law:

- For 2008, the child tax credit is refundable if 15 percent of the taxpayer’s earned income is in excess of $8,500. The new law would reduce this floor in 2009 and 2010 to $3,000. “It makes the full benefit of the child tax credit available to a larger number of low- and moderate-income workers,” said Eric Smith, a spokesman for the IRS.

- You get a one-year deduction for state or local sales or excise tax paid on new-car purchases up to $49,500. The deduction does not include interest on the loan, as some media reports have said. Additionally, the deduction is “above the line,” which means that it can be taken even by those who do not itemize other deductions on their tax returns. To qualify, you have to have an annual adjusted gross income below $135,000 for individuals or $260,000 in the case of joint returns.

- Money withdrawn from a 529 college savings plan is not taxable if it’s used for qualifying expenses. Under the stimulus plan, computer expenses will now be considered an allowable expense for 529 college savings plans.

- The plan exempts the first $2,400 of unemployment insurance benefits from federal income taxes in 2009.

One more thing, please note that many of the tax breaks in the stimulus plan apply only for your 2009 tax return — not the current tax filing season.

— Listen to Michelle Singletary discuss personal finance every Tuesday on NPR’s “Day to Day.’’ To hear her reports online, go to http://www.npr.org/.
Readers can write to her c/o The Washington Post, 1150 15th St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20071. Her e-mail address is singletarym@washpost.com.

"Show me the note" Can Stall Banks' Efforts to Foreclose

2009-02-22T10:37:00.000-08:00

Ventura County Star Newspaper Article from 22 February 2009

Request for original buys time
By Mitch StacyThe Associated PressSunday, February 22, 2009

How the mortgage process worked

Kathy Lovelace, of Zephyrhills, Fla., says she was able to stop foreclosure proceedings by asking that the lender produce the original mortgage note.

Attorney Chris Hoyer of Tampa, Fla., runs the Consumer Warning Network Web site, which offers free court documents to homeowners faced with foreclosure.

ZEPHYRHILLS, Fla. — Kathy Lovelace lost her job and was about to lose her house, too. But then she made a seemingly simple request of the bank: Show me the original mortgage paperwork.

And just like that, the foreclosure proceedings came to a standstill.

Lovelace and other homeowners around the country are managing to stave off foreclosure by employing a strategy that goes to the heart of the whole nationwide mess.

During the real estate frenzy of the past decade, mortgages were sold and resold, bundled into securities and peddled to investors. In many cases, the original note signed by the homeowner was lost, stored away in a distant warehouse or destroyed.

Persuading a judge to compel production of hard-to-find or nonexistent documents can, at the very least, delay foreclosure, buying the homeowner some time and turning up the pressure on the lender to renegotiate the mortgage.

“I’m going to hang on for dear life until they can prove to me it belongs to them,” said Lovelace, a 50-year-old divorced mother who owns a $200,000 home in Zephyrhills, near Tampa. “I’ll try everything I can because it’s all I have left.”

In interviews with The Associated Press, lawyers, homeowners and advocates outlined the produce-the-note strategy. Exactly how many homeowners have employed it is unknown. Nor is it clear how successful it has been; some judges are more sympathetic than others.

More than 2.3 million homeowners faced foreclosure proceedings last year and millions more are in danger of losing their homes. On Wednesday, President Barack Obama unveiled a plan to spend $75 billion to help homeowners fend off foreclosure.

Chris Hoyer, a Tampa lawyer whose Consumer Warning Network Web site offers the free court documents Lovelace used to file her request, has played a major role in promoting the produce-the-note strategy.
“We knew early on that the only relief that would ever come to people would be to the people who were in their houses,” Hoyer said. “Nobody was going to fashion any relief for people who have already lost their houses. So your only hope was to hang on any way you could.”

Tom Deutsch, deputy executive director of the American Securitization Forum, a group that represents banks, law firms and investors, dismissed the strategy as merely a stalling tactic, saying homeowners are “making lawyers jump through procedural hoops to delay what’s likely to be inevitable.”

Deutsch said the original note is almost always electronically retained and can eventually be found. Judges are often willing to accept electronic documentation. And lenders are sometimes allowed to produce other paperwork to establish they are the holders of loans.

Still, assembling such documents to a judge’s satisfaction takes time, which to homeowners is the point. Lovelace filed her produce-the-note demand last fall after the bank acknowledged that her original mortgage document had been lost or destroyed. Since then, there has been no activity on the foreclosure — no letters from the lender, no court filings.

The law firm handling the foreclosure for the lender refused to comment.

A University of Iowa study last year suggested that companies servicing mortgages are often negligent when it comes to producing the documentation to support foreclosure. In the study of more than 1,700 bankruptcy cases stemming from home foreclosures, the original note was missing more than 40 percent of the time, and other pieces of required documentation also were routinely left out.

The first big success of the produce-the-note movement came in 2007, when a federal judge in Cleveland threw out 14 foreclosures by Deutsche Bank National Trust Co. because the bank failed to produce the original notes.

Michael Silver, a lawyer for two of the families in that case, said at least one eventually lost its home. Still, he considers that a success.
“From the perspective of the person who’s in the home, you may have kept them in the house another 10 or 12 months,” he said. “If I can get a result with economic benefits to a client, then I think I won.”

Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur of Ohio endorsed the strategy in a fiery speech on the House floor during debate on the federal bank bailout last month.
“Don’t leave your home,” she said. “Because you know what? When those companies say they have your mortgage, unless you have a lawyer that can put his or her finger on that mortgage, you don’t have that mortgage, and you are going to find they can’t find the paper up there on Wall Street.”

April Charney, head of foreclosure defense for Jacksonville Area Legal Aid in Florida, said the strategy has been so successful for her that she now travels around the country to train other lawyers in how to use it. She said she has gotten cases delayed for years by demanding that lenders produce paperwork they cannot find.

On the Net:
Consumer Warning Network: http://www.consumerwarningnetwork.com/
American Securitization Forum: http://www.americansecuritization.com/

Bargains Spur Feeding Frenzy at Low End of Home Market

2009-02-22T10:22:00.000-08:00

Ventura County Star Article from February 20,2009

But housing prices still sliding, experts warn
By Jenni Mintz (Contact) Friday, February 20, 2009

Grim economic news isn’t stopping some homebuyers from pouncing on distressed properties, even as experts warn that prices could fall further.

Spurred by foreclosure sales, Ventura County’s home sales shot above year-ago levels for the seventh straight month in January, MDA DataQuick reported Thursday. There were 578 new and existing homes and condominiums sold last month, up 36.6 percent from 423 the previous year, but down 34 percent from 876 in December, according to the real estate information service.

The median, the point where half the homes sold for more and half for less, was $335,000 in January, falling 29.9 percent from $477,750 for the same month in 2008. The median has fallen for 30 consecutive months, plunging 46.8 percent from its $630,000 peak in December 2005.

The steep decline was attributed to sliding prices and types of homes that were sold.

Foreclosures comprised 49.1 percent of last month’s resale activity. Upper end of market listless “The bottom end is selling like hotcakes,” said Brian Troop, president of Simi Valley-based Troop Real Estate. “There’s not a lot of activity in the upper end of the market.”

Lower-end properties are hot sellers for several reasons, Troop said. Many buyers are investors wanting to buy at the bottom of the market, but there aren’t a lot of homeowners who are looking to move up, he said. If they did, the availability of mortgage loans might be an obstacle.

Lenders have been tight with upper-end mortgages, but Troop thinks that will change with the passage of the economic stimulus package, which increased loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to $729,000 through the end of the year. Record low prices and interest rates and the recently enacted $8,000 tax credit available to first-time homebuyers are other perks, he said.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage dropped to 5.04 percent this week from 5.16 percent last week, Freddie Mac said Thursday. A year ago, a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.04 percent.

“The opportunity for buyers is the best I’ve seen, and I’ve been in the business since 1978,” Troop said. He said the average sales price has flattened out in the lower market, where he’s seeing five to 10 offers on a home and properties selling for more than the listed price.

But many people are still skittish.

“Nobody I know is buying now — everybody is afraid of losing their job,” said Dave Lake, an IT analyst for a healthcare company in Westlake Village. Awaiting ‘break-even point’ Lake said he’s renting until the market corrects to a sustainable level. He expects prices to fall 20 to 30 percent in Westlake Village in the next year, and then drop an additional 5 to 10 percent for several years after that.

“I’m waiting for the break-even point, where the cost of owning approaches the cost of renting,” he said, adding that he expects that to happen in the next 18 months in Westlake Village.

For many first-time homebuyers and investors, it’s not worth trying to time the price bottom perfectly, said John Walsh, DataQuick president. “They’re happy to lock in substantial discounts relative to the peak.”

That was reflected in a sales spurt across Southern California, where a total of 15,227 new and existing homes and condominiums closed escrow last month, up 52.5 percent from 9,984 a year ago.

The Southland median was $250,000, down a record 39.8 percent from $415,000 in January 2008, and the lowest since it was $242,000 in February 2002, DataQuick reported.
Foreclosures represented 60 percent of all homes resold. Sales of newly built homes were the lowest for the month of January in at least 21 years, DataQuick reported.

Default notices and foreclosures have slowed, but many economists agree that it could take years for the housing market to recover and prices to rebound.

Dennis Torres, executive director of real estate operations and adjunct professor at Pepperdine University’s Graziadio School of Business and Management, expects prices to continue to fall at least through 2009.

“In Ventura County, I see them going down more than they are now, but I do not see the rate of decrease anywhere near what it was,” Torres said.

On the Net:
http://www.dqnews.com/

2009-01-11T15:58:00.000-08:00

Pier View Townhomes

Mark Dragonchuck is a genius. He has done what very few other local developers have achieved.

He got it right.

Mr Dragonchuck has managed to place a group of townhomes where they ought to be, at a price that is very competitive and with a quality of workmanship and superb styling that we seldom see. This is very cutting edge stuff. This is Pier View Townhomes.

Nine units only, no pool or recreation center and hardly anything else that a buyer can be charged for in addition to their home. These are just small, really, really nice homes. Very energy efficient and very tech friendly. Wow, what a concept!

There are only four units left, but they represent some very comfortable offerings. The basic home layout is a 2 car garage with built-in laundry on the first floor and a very long straight staircase to the living areas on the second and third floors. These homes are not designed for folks with weak legs. You drop your newspaper at the top of the steps and it’s going to bounce all the way down to the street.

When you enter the living area you are going to be surprised at the level of workmanship and attention to detail you see everywhere around you. Take a look at the limestone flooring. It’s not just well executed, it’s breathtaking in design and colors used as well. All of the gorgeous tilework is framed by 5” dark natural wood floor trim and matching door frames. There are no two units that share designs or colors.

Everything you touch is nice. The doors are solid panel fir. The door knobs and hinges are oil rubbed bronze. Light fixtures are shaker style and sized for the home. The staircase banisters are varnished hard wood and installed on both sides of the steps – a nice touch.

The second floor has the kitchen, dining area, living room and 1 bathroom. There is a two chair deck off the dining area which may or may not have a view and which usually has a gas plug for your barbeque. You may have to give up a chair if you elect to have a barbeque on your deck.

The kitchens are mostly small with no islands, but with very high quality, hand finished natural wooden cabinetry, stainless appliances, and some marvelous granite counter tops that were evidently selected with great care. Under cabinet lighting and recessed room lighting keep everything comfortably lit for food preparation. Most kitchens have a window but the kitchen views may not always impress.

The stairways to the third floor may or may not be carpeted, but all are limestone or flagstone framed with hardwood trim and banisters. The top floor has one or two bedrooms and a bath. The bathrooms are masterpieces of stone work flooring and colorful granite vanity tops.

The smaller bedroom usually is rather compact with few frills, while the master bedroom will have an outside deck and a larger closet. There were a few master bedrooms that had absolutely wonderful views of the ocean and pier. One of the units we visited had a good-sized walk-in closet in addition to the deck and larger bedroom size. Another unit, had both bedrooms sharing the outside patio with their own separate access.

Everything you see runs counter to the normal new home trends. Bigger here is not better. The units are compact and scream efficiency, quality and high tech. No plastic anywhere, no built-in entertainment nooks and no 1000 square foot two story entryways. There really is no wasted space anywhere.

What you will find are dual pane PELLA windows, water saving shower heads, low flow toilets, set back thermostat controls for FAU, exterior house doors weather stripped and the list goes on. Hard wired smoke detectors, garage door safety sensors, fire sprinkler systems, HDTV ready, pre-wired for security system, pre-wired for On-Q network systems. Very impressive, very smart, very green, very nice.

Usually on one of the floors of each unit there is a view or partial view of mountains, ocean or some of the nearby Victorian Style mansions which have been converted to apartment or business use. There are several units which have a parking lot view of the next door restaurant and which absorb a bit of the loud music that it plays. There are also a few very poorly maintained rental homes just over the fence on both sides of the development. It just adds to the inner city ambiance.

People who like downtown Ventura with all it’s shops, restaurants, playhouses and clubs will find this a marvelous, convenient place to live. These homes are 1 block from the pedestrian bridge that crosses the 101 to the ocean front walkways, surfing beaches, restaurants and fairgrounds. You would have a difficult time finding another single location with such extraordinary access to the best attractions Ventura has to offer.

I give this enclave an A for style, A for quality, A for execution, and an A for location.
I like it! I want to see more from Mr Dragonchuck.

Warmest Regards,
Mark Thorngren

Find out more at http://www.pierviewtownhomes.com/

Visit more of my blogs at http://www.blogger.com/www.MarkThorngren.com.

Lost and Alone in a Sea of Senior Agencies

2008-12-31T18:12:00.000-08:00

Area Agency On Aging
Christy Cantrell
(800) 510-2020

Hello Christy,
It was wonderful speaking with you yesterday on behalf of Sara. You and your organization do wonderful work for folks like Sara.

As you know, Sara is 76 years old and living alone in a rented apartment in Ventura. She is frustrated, desperate, despondent and scared to death. She has high blood pressure, osteoporosis, cataracts in both her eyes (which she says her medical insurance refuses to cover) and she took a bad fall this last year. Oh, she is going deaf as well.

Until now, her rent has been $850/month, but new property owners have raised her rent to $1,150/month. Her Master Card reset her card limit to $200 without her immediate knowledge and she used this card to make up the difference for her rent. As a result, the new owners charged her a $50 bounced check fee on top of her increase in rent. She says she has less than 2 months before she will be evicted from her home.

I’m told rent control does not exist in Ventura County except for mobile homes in Thousand Oaks, so she has no recourse to the $300/month increase in her rent. That’s a 35% hike in her housing expenses and she doesn’t even have a mortgage!

One of my co-workers and I received a request for help from Sara. Sara knows we are both Realtors and she was hoping we knew of properties she could afford. In the spirit of the season, we have did a county-wide MLS search for anything renting for less than $1,000/month but had no luck. There may be something in the classified’s, but with her fixed income at just over $900/mo, it is unlikely we can improve her situation even if we do find something. She will still need food, clothing, utilities and medical care.

We have been making phone calls to local agencies and charities, but we haven’t had a great deal of success. Admittedly, we are not experienced at finding people like her the most appropriate help, but we have tried to do our best.

Christy, you indicated you have had prior contact with Sara, that she has made some unfortunate choices in health care providers, and in not applying for all the assistance she could be receiving. I’m sure that could be true, but from what Sara has told me, she has always tried to be self-sufficient until now. She’s been proud to take care of herself and slow to ask for public aid. Now that her housing expenses have jumped, she has little time left to change her situation, mostly because she has tried so hard to be independent.

The more I investigate what resources are available to her this time of the year, the more I understand her emotional distress. Many state and county agencies I contacted during this last week, have exhausted their annual budgets. Next year’s budgets are probably going to be much smaller for elderly assistance. Many of the larger agencies such as the Area Housing Authority of the County of Ventura are on holiday until 5 January 2009. Others, such as Section 8 Housing have a 2 to 4 year waiting period after application is made for Elderly Housing Assistance. These folks are without funding or on holiday.

This is evidently a very bad time of the year for finding financial assistance, or guidance. Yet this is typically a time of the year when rents are raised.

I’ve been told by numerous agencies that Sara is not unusual in her plight. Agencies have told me there are literally thousands of seniors asking for help. Evidently, more than a few elderly folks live out their final days on the street. This is euthanasia by default. I find it really hard to understand how this could be, in an area of Southern California that is home to so much individual wealth.

My co-worker and I have heard Sara say she might feel compelled to take her own life. She has said that she doesn’t want to do that, “because she wouldn’t get to see her son in heaven if she did.” But she told me today that the ocean is so near, she might just go there and end her troubles. She has also mentioned that she wishes she could just die in her sleep, that “she is angry at God because he won’t let her end her life that way.”

I’m not a mental health professional but I feel confident in saying that Sara’s stress is probably preventing her from making the right choices for herself.

I’m a member of the giant Baby Boomer generation, and I can foresee a time in the not too distant future, when people like myself will be approaching Sara’s age and mental competence. Obviously, we are going to need to be much better prepared than she. I think my generation’s retirement pardigm needs some major shifting. I’m sure we all need to contribute a bit more of our individual energy and earnings to that future time. We shouldn’t rely on the charity of others to survive, but perhaps we could develop a more efficient, effective and dignified response to elderly care than Sara has received.

In any case, you were extremely helpful today Christy. I appreciate your continued efforts at the “Area Agency on Aging” to help Sara. I also received some very useful and heartfelt guidance from Regina Fitzgerald at “Project Understanding.” My co-worker and I made calls to more than 20 departments and agencies today.

You and Regina and a very nice lady (who’s name I didn’t catch) at the after hours information desk of “Adult Protective Services” offered us very constructive advice and guidance. Your organizations don’t seem to draw much public attention or anything near the appreciation that I’m sure your efforts deserve, but you have thoroughly impressed us. You folks truly are leading the charge on one of our nation’s most unrecognized, immediate challenges.

I’m convinced from what I have seen, that we in America are not at our best when providing for the elderly. I served 23 years in the military and I love my country, but I’m embarrassed at how poorly we treat our seniors.

On behalf of Sara - Thank you Christy
Mark Thorngren

Renters vs Foreclosures

2008-12-18T12:57:00.000-08:00

December 15, 2008
Fannie Mae Lets Renters Stay Despite Foreclosures
By CHARLES DUHIGG

In a move that provides relief to thousands of renters who face eviction but draws the federal government even deeper into the housing market, the loan giant Fannie Mae said Sunday that it would sign new leases with renters living in foreclosed properties owned by the company.

It is the first nationwide effort to provide widespread relief to renters ensnared by the unfolding mortgage crisis, and it will effectively transform Fannie Mae — a government-controlled mortgage finance company — into a national landlord.

It may also increase pressure on private lenders to establish similar programs and on lawmakers to pass renter relief. “There are renters all around the country who have been holding up their end of the bargain and paying their rent faithfully, but the landlord got into trouble, and so the renter is now unfairly facing eviction,” said John Taylor, president of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, a consumer advocacy group. “It’s really good news that Fannie Mae is doing this. Now the question is whether private sector will follow suit.”

In recent months, skyrocketing foreclosure rates have exposed as many as 70,000 renters to evictions, even though many never missed rent payments, according to analysts who track housing data. In many cities and states, renters can be evicted after their home goes into foreclosure, regardless of how long their lease stretches into thefuture.

Many financial institutions — including JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America — have policies to evict renters after foreclosure, company representatives said. Fannie Mae’s initiative is expected to initially benefit as many as 4,000 renters living in foreclosed homes owned by the company. Fannie Mae has traditionally only bought and sold mortgages. But when a loan held by the company goes into foreclosure, Fannie Mae gains ownership of the underlying property until it is resold to new investors.

Fannie Mae owned 67,500 properties in foreclosure at the end of September, according to the company’s most recent filings. Most of those were owner-occupied. Under the new policy, former owners will most likely not be eligible to rent homes they lost in foreclosure.

Last month, both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the other government-controlled mortgage giant, temporarily suspended foreclosures and evictions until early January. Fannie Mae will now offer renters in foreclosed properties month-to-month leases until the property is resold.

A company representative said program details were still being worked out. “While it may be sometimes tougher for us to sell a property when people are in it, we understand that lots of people are in tough situations right now,” said Chuck Greener, a Fannie Mae spokesman. “If a renter wants to stay in their home, we’ll make that happen. And if they want to move out, in many cases we’ll help them pay for the move.”

A spokesman for Freddie Mac said that the company was looking at a number of options, including a program similar to Fannie Mae’s, but that no decisions had been made. The companies’ regulator, James B. Lockhart of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, issued a statement on Sunday saying that he expected both companies to update their policies shortly regarding renters living in foreclosed properties.

Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were taken over by Mr. Lockhart’s agency this year and now operate in aconservatorship. Representatives of some major banks said it was unclear if Fannie Mae’s new policy would prompt their institutions to change theirs. “We’re not in the business of managing rental properties, and we’re not in the business of being a landlord,” said Thomas Kelly, a spokesman for JP Morgan Chase, which owns about two million loans. “Clearly the renter is caught in the middle in cases like this. When a property is in foreclosure, we follow the law.”

Some lawmakers and housing advocates say such policies are unjust. “If your loan is owned by Fannie Mae, you get to stay in your home. If your loan is owned by someone else, you’re on the street,” said Mr. Taylor of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition. “These banks need to realize they’re in the property management business now, whether they like it or not.”

Some lawmakers have complained that evicting renters is unfair. In November, the Los Angeles City Council voted to draft a law that would bar financial institutions from evicting renters living in foreclosed homes.

Last year, the House passed a measure that would require the new owner of a foreclosed property to inform renters at least 90 days before an eviction. That bill failed to pass the Senate.

Law enforcement officers in some states have refused to evict residents of foreclosed properties. But Yadilka Torres, who rents a home in New Haven, Conn., for $775 a month, had no such protection. Fannie Mae took possession of her house in September, when it went into foreclosure.

Even though she was current on her rent, she received an eviction notice saying that she and her two young children would have to leave. She looked for another apartment but could not find anything affordable. Under Fannie Mae’s new policy, she will now be allowed to stay.

“I was feeling so nervous,” Ms. Torres said. “I’ve tried very hard to pay the rent and to pay all my bills, and it seemed unfair this was happening. I’m very grateful we won’t have to move.”

Rise In First Time Home Buyers

2008-12-09T19:05:00.000-08:00

Buyers, Long-Term Plans NAR Home Buyer and Seller Survey Shows Rise in First-Time Buyers

ORLANDO, November 08, 2008

The latest consumer survey of home buyers and sellers shows first-time buyers have risen in market share and plan to own their homes longer than buyers in the past. The study was released here today at the 2008 REALTORS® Conference & Expo.

The 2008 National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers is the latest in a series of large national NAR surveys evaluating demographics, marketing, preferences and experiences of home buyers and sellers.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a higher share of first-time buyers makes perfect sense, and it’s a trend he expects to grow. “First-time buyers are much more flexible in entering the market because they aren’t concerned about selling an existing home,” he said. “Given low home prices, plentiful supply and affordable interest rates, it’s been an optimal time for entry-level buyers with a long-term view.

“Considering the temporary first-time buyer tax credit and improvements to the FHA loan program, we expect stronger entry-level activity as the flow of credit improves – that, in turn, should free more existing owners to make a trade in 2009.”

The number of first-time buyers rose to 41 percent from 39 percent of transactions in last year’s survey and 36 percent in 2006. “Although modest, this is a meaningful gain for the 12-month period ending at the close of June, and more recent independent data show a stronger uptrend in first-time buyers who are helping to reduce excess inventory,” Yun said.*

According to the NAR study, the median age of first-time buyers was 30, down from 31 in 2007, and the median income was $60,600. The typical first-time buyer purchased a home costing $165,000 and plans to stay in that home for 10 years, up from seven years in 2007.
The median downpayment by first-time buyers was 4 percent, up from 2 percent in 2007; the number purchasing with no money down fell from 45 percent in 2007 to 34 percent in the current survey.

“The study covers transactions through the middle of 2008, so we can assume the downpayment numbers have shifted recently because credit tightened and no-downpayment loans all but disappeared around the close of the survey,” Yun explained.

Of first-time buyers who made a downpayment, 69 percent used savings and 26 percent received a gift from a friend or relative, typically from their parents. Another 7 percent received a loan from a relative or friend, while 16 percent tapped into a 401(k) fund, stocks or bonds. Ninety-two percent chose a fixed-rate mortgage.

NAR 2008 President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said consumers rely heavily on the expertise of real estate agents to navigate the market. “This is the biggest transaction most people are ever involved in, so the qualities they’re looking for in a real estate agent include reputation, honesty, integrity and knowledge of the market,” he said. “Both buyers and sellers want agents to provide context, advice and know-how. The vast majority would use their agent again or recommend their agent to others.”

Only 1 percent of sellers chose an agent based on his or her commission. Forty-six percent report the real estate agent initiated a discussion of compensation, while 24 percent of sellers brought up the topic and the agent was willing to negotiate the commission or fee. Thirteen percent of sellers did not know commissions and fees are negotiable.

Nearly nine out of 10 home buyers and sellers would definitely or probably use the same agent again or recommend him or her to others, consistent with the 2007 findings. The survey shows that 81 percent of home buyers and 84 percent sellers used a real estate professional, comparable to 2007.

Thirty-eight percent of sellers found their agent as a result of a referral, while 26 percent used the agent in a previous home purchase. Similarly, 43 percent of buyers relied on referrals to find an agent, while 18 percent of repeat buyers used an agent from a previous transaction.

The percentage of buyers who purchased a home in foreclosure jumped to 6 percent of transactions in the 2008 survey from 1 percent in 2007. Another 38 percent of buyers considered purchasing of a home in foreclosure but did not, primarily because they could not find the right home.

Commuting costs factored greatly in neighborhood selection, with 41 percent of buyers saying they were very important and another 39 percent saying transportation costs were somewhat important. “Since fuel costs began rising in the latter part of the survey period, it’s reasonable to assume they’ve become even more important to home buyers since,” Yun said. “We’ve heard from our members that commuting costs are playing a bigger role in buyers’ decisions.”

Environmentally friendly features also were important, cited by 90 percent of buyers. Heating and cooling costs were of primary importance, followed by energy efficient appliances and energy efficient lighting.

Buyers searched a median of 10 weeks and viewed 10 homes. Of buyers who used an agent, 61 percent chose a buyer’s representative. Nearly nine out of 10 consider their home a good investment, and almost half see it as a better investment than stocks. Fifteen percent of buyers own two or more homes.

The typical repeat buyer was 47 years old, earned $88,200, purchased a home costing $236,000 and plans to stay in that home for 10 years. Repeat buyers made a median downpayment of 15 percent, but 10 percent paid cash for their property.

The median age of home sellers was 47; income was $91,000. Three-quarters were married couples, had been in their home for six years and moved a median distance of 19 miles. Their home was on the market for eight weeks; 5 percent of sellers who also purchased a home reported selling their home in a short sale.

Forty-two percent of sellers offered incentives to attract buyers, such as assistance with closing costs or home warranty policies. The typical home sold for 96 percent of the listing price, and 86 percent of sellers were satisfied with the selling process. Fifty-two percent of sellers were trading up to a larger home, while 22 percent were downsizing.

The study found that 81 percent of sellers used full-service brokerage, in which real estate agents provide a range of services that include managing most of the process of selling a home from listing to closing. Nine percent chose limited services, which may include discount brokerage, and 9 percent used minimal service, such as simply listing a property on a multiple listing service. All of these types of services are provided by Realtors® as well as non-member agents and brokers. The results are identical to findings in 2007 and comparable to findings in 2006.

Primarily, sellers want agents to price their home competitively, market the property, find a buyer and sell within a specific timeframe.

Home buyers are consistent in their expectations of real estate agents. Buyers thought the most important agent services are helping find the right house, and negotiating sales terms and price. Because agents often are chosen based on a referral, or were used in a previous transaction, two-thirds of buyers contacted only one real estate agent in the search process.

Buyers used a variety of resources in searching for a home: 87 percent used the Internet, 85 percent used a real estate agent, 62 percent yard signs, 48 percent attended open houses and 47 percent looked at print or newspaper ads. Fewer buyers rely on a home book or magazine, home builders, television, billboards and relocation companies. Buyers most commonly start their search process online and then contact a real estate agent.

When asked where they first learned about the home purchased, 34 percent of buyers said a real estate agent; 32 percent the Internet; 15 percent from yard signs; 7 percent from a friend, neighbor or relative; 7 percent home builders; 3 percent a print or newspaper ad; 2 percent directly from the seller; and 1 percent a home book or magazine.

Eighty-seven percent of home buyers who used the Internet to search for a home purchased through a real estate agent, in contrast with 72 percent of non-Internet users who were more likely to purchase directly from a builder or from an owner they already knew in a private transaction.

Local metropolitan multiple listing service Web sites were the most popular Internet resource, used by 60 percent of buyers, followed by Realtor.com, 48 percent; real estate company sites, 46 percent; real estate agent Web sites, 43 percent; for-sale-by-owner sites, 19 percent; and local newspaper sites, 11 percent; other categories were smaller.

Sixty-one percent of buyers are married couples, 20 percent are single women, 10 percent single men, 7 percent unmarried couples and 2 percent other. Twenty-six percent are non-white, 9 percent were born outside of the United States, and 4 percent primarily speak a language other than English.

Seventy-eight percent of all respondents purchased a detached single-family home, 9 percent a condo, 8 percent a townhouse or rowhouse, and 5 percent some other kind of housing.
Fifty-five percent of all homes purchased were in a suburb or subdivision, 17 percent were in an urban area, 16 percent in a small town, 10 percent in a rural area and 2 percent in a resort or recreation area. The median distance from the previous residence was 12 miles.

The level of for-sale-by-owner transactions was 13 percent, up slightly from a record-low market share of 12 percent in both 2007 and 2006. The level of homes sold without professional representation has trended lower since reaching a cyclical peak of 18 percent in 1997.
A large number of these properties were not placed on the open market – 45 percent were “closely held” between parties who knew each other in advance, such as family or acquaintances.
Factoring out properties that were not placed on the open market, the actual number of homes sold without professional assistance is 7 percent – the rest are unrepresented sellers in private transactions. This matches the results in the 2007 study and marks a downtrend from 10 percent sold on the open market in 2004.

The median home price for sellers who used an agent was $211,000 vs. $153,000 for a home sold directly by an owner, but there were important differences between the two. Unassisted sellers were more likely to be in a rural area or small town where sellers are more likely to know potential buyers. In addition, the home was more likely to be a mobile or manufactured home, and the owner’s income was lower than that of sellers using agents.

The most difficult tasks reported by unrepresented sellers are selling within the planned length of time, getting the right price, preparing the home for sale, and understanding and performing paperwork.

NAR mailed an eight-page questionnaire in August 2008 to a national sample of 133,000 home buyers and sellers who purchased their homes between July 2007 and June 2008, according to county records. It generated 10,053 usable responses; the adjusted response rate was 7.9 percent. All information is characteristic of the 12-month period ending in June 2008 with the exception of income data, which are for 2007. Because of rounding and omissions for space, percentage distributions for some findings may not add up to 100 percent.

# # #

*A separate report by HouseHunt, Inc., based on a survey of 2,000 real estate agents, shows 50 percent of homes purchased in the third quarter of 2008 were by first-time buyers.

© Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 60611

DC Office: 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001-2020 I 1-800-874-6500

2008-12-09T18:06:00.000-08:00

YOUR MONEY
It May Be Time to Think About Buying a House

By RON LIEBER
Published: December 5, 2008
Five or 10 years from now, when the financial crisis has ended and housing prices are up smartly once more, we will look in the rearview mirror and realize that we missed a golden age for first-time home buyers.

Then, everyone who sat on their down payment savings accounts for a few years too long will kick themselves for not taking advantage of what may turn out to be the buying opportunity of a lifetime for those who can qualify for a mortgage.

Unfortunately, we do not know when this golden age will begin, because we will be able to identify a bottom to the housing market only with the benefit of hindsight. But as it does with the stock market, the moment will probably arrive when everyone is feeling the most pessimistic.

That moment is certainly getting closer. Housing prices have fallen drastically from their peak levels in many areas of the country. Rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are already close to 5.5 percent, and this week there were suggestions that the federal government might try to drive them down to 4.5 percent, a truly incredible figure to be able to lock in for three decades.

Meanwhile, first-time home buyers have the same advantage they have always had, which is that they do not have to sell their old place before buying a new one. That is an added advantage in areas where many available houses simply are not moving, because the people trying to sell them will not be bidding against you.

If you’re hoping for a recovery in the housing market, you ought to be cheering on the first-time home buyers. When they purchase homes, their sellers are free to move on or move up, stimulating further sales.

But if you are a potential first-time buyer yourself, or lending or giving the down payment to one, you are probably as frightened as you are tempted by all the “For Sale” signs that have become “On Sale” signs. So let’s quickly review some of the still-grim pricing data in certain areas — and consider the reasoning offered up by first-time buyers who have forged ahead anyhow.

As is always the case with real estate, much depends on location. One study, “The Changing Prospects for Building Home Equity,” tries to predict where today’s first-time buyers in the 100 biggest metropolitan areas may actually have less home equity by 2012 as a result of continued price declines. The verdict was that buyers in 33 of the markets could see a decline by 2012, including potential six-figure drops on an average home in the New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle metropolitan areas.

This is obviously scary. (I’ve linked to the study, a joint effort of the Center for Economic and Policy Research and the National Low Income Housing Coalition, from the version of this article at nytimes.com/yourmoney.) It’s worth noting, however, that these predictions came before the government made its most recent move to reduce borrowing costs.

Also, the price projections in the study are based, in part, on the fact that the ratio of purchase prices to annual rents is still higher in many areas than the historical average, which is roughly 15 times rents. While past figures may well have some predictive value, I have never been convinced that first-time buyers compare a home that they could own and one that they would rent in purely or even primarily economic terms.

When Jaime and Michael Proman moved this fall to Minneapolis, his hometown, from New York City, they craved a different sort of life after two years together in a 450-square-foot studio apartment. “We didn’t want a sterile apartment feel,” said Mr. Proman, who is 28 (his wife is 26). “We wanted something that was permanent and very much a reflection of us.”

The fact is, in many parts of the country there are few if any attractive rentals for people looking to put down roots and enjoy the sort of amenities they may spot on cable television home improvement shows. Comparing a rental with a place that you may own seems almost pointless in these situations, especially for those who are now grown up enough to want to make their own decisions about décor without consulting the landlord.

Still, for anyone feeling the urge to buy, a number of practical considerations have changed in the last year or two. The basics are back, like spending no more than 28 percent of your pretax income on mortgage payments, taxes and insurance. Even if a lender does not hold you to this when you go in for preapproval, you should hold yourself to it.

You will also want to start now on any project to improve your credit score because it may take several months to get it above the 720 level that qualifies you for many of the best mortgage rates.

John Ulzheimer, president of consumer education for credit.com, a consumer credit information and application site, suggests starting to pay down and put away credit cards months before you apply for a loan. That is because the credit scoring system could penalize you if you use a lot of credit each month, even if you always pay in full. Also, check your three credit reports (it’s free) at annualcreditreport.com and dispute errors.

While no one can easily predict the likelihood of losing a job, Friday’s startling unemployment figures suggest the need for caution if you think you might be vulnerable. A. C. Panella, who teaches communications at Pasadena City College in California, waited until she had a tenure-track job before buying a home in the Highland Park section of Los Angeles with her partner, Amy Goldman, a lawyer for a nonprofit organization. “We could afford the mortgage payment on one salary, were something to come up,” Ms. Panella, 31, said. “It’s really about being able to stay within our means.”

For many first-time home buyers, that philosophy stretches to the down payment, too. Ms. Panella and her partner put down 20 percent when they bought their home in September, as did the Promans when they bought their home in the Lowry Hill neighborhood of Minneapolis.

Alison Nowak, 29, put just 3 percent down on a Federal Housing Administration-backed loan last month when she and her partner, Lacey Mamak, bought a $149,900, 800-square-foot home several miles south of where the Promans live. “Anything that is an opportunity also has a bit of risk,” she said. Her house was in foreclosure before a plumber bought it and fixed it up. “One way we mitigated it was that we bought a really tiny house in a very good neighborhood.”

One other strategy might be to buy new instead of used. Ian Shepherdson, chief United States economist for the research firm High Frequency Economics, says he believes that a steep drop-off in inventory of new homes is coming soon, thanks to a rapid decrease in home builder activity.

Since prices generally soften in the winter, it may make sense to start looking seriously once the mercury bottoms out. “If you look at new developments next spring, you may not have the choice you thought you would have or be in the bargaining position you thought you would be,” Mr. Shepherdson said. Also, if you wait after June 30, you will miss out on a $7,500 federal tax credit for income-eligible first-time home buyers that works like an interest-free loan.

Finally, allow yourself to consider how it would feel if you bought and then prices dropped another 10 or 15 percent. It might not bother you if you plan to stick around. Plenty of people seem to be making a longer commitment to their homes. According to a survey that the National Association of Realtors released last month, typical first-time buyers plan to stay in their home 10 years, up from 7 last year.

Perhaps people are more aware that they will not be able to build equity as rapidly as others did in the real estate boom. Or they simply have more confidence in hard, hometown assets now than in other markets.

“We wouldn’t let another decline bother us,” said Michael Proman. “You can never time a bottom. This is a long-term investment for us, and it truly is the best investment we have in our portfolio right now.”

Ready to buy, or waiting it out? Post a comment at nytimes.com/yourmoney or write to rlieber@nytimes.com.

More Articles in Business » A version of this article appeared in print on December 6, 2008, on page B1 of the New York edition.

Port 121 at Seabridge Marina - Oxnard, CA

2008-11-08T17:58:00.000-08:00

Port 121 at Seabridge Marina

Port 121 is part of the master planned community at Seabridge Marina. It is probably one of the last major residential communities to be approved by the California Coastal Commission for the foreseeable future. The Seabridge Marina takes advantage of breath-taking mountain views, easy ocean access and world class shopping, culture, and recreation within a few minutes drive.
The Channel Islands National Park is a 20 mile boat ride off the coast to the West.

As I write this on 8 November, 2008 the Weather Channel is reporting over 12 inches of rain in parts of Washington State, near-record snow fall in South Dakota with drifts high enough to trap home owners inside, and cold winds blowing through Chicago. Here in Ventura County we are enjoying clear, sunny skies, with temps in the high 70’s and low 80’s. It is not difficult to understand why people move here from all over the world.

Seabridge Marina new home communities are being offered at very competitive prices compared to the older harbor side communities in the LA Basin. If you like yachts, backdoor mooring for your yacht and a fabulous clubhouse / pool complex – Seabridge Marina is a real eye-opener. If you want a luxury loft style living space, Port 121 at Seabridge Marina is really the only game in town.

Port 121 is a Townhome complex made up of two buildings – Phase 1 and Phase 2 - fronting on the Marina Village area of Seabridge Marina. The first building – Phase 1 - is rapidly nearing completion with 35 units. Sales began in July and there are 24 units still available as of early November 2008. That means these homes are selling at a rate of about 3 a month. None of the units will be available for move-in until early 2009. These first 35 units are scheduled for completion sometime between January and March.

Phase 1
Phase 1 is a three story building with keypad security and elevator access. There are 8 floorplans which include first floor live/work units combining business office space with second floor quarters. The office units have already sold out in Phase 1. The majority of the units are residential and include single story and two story loft homes. These homes are being offered with a long list of luxury upgrades included standard. A few of these upgrades include:

- “Metro Maple” European style cabinetry
- Living Room and Master Bedroom pre-wired for plasma tv’s
- Video/Audio system including interior inside monitor for visitor communication and access
- Category 5 high speed data transmission wiring at all Bedrooms, Loft, Living Room and
Kitchen (per plan). Fiber optic cable with central hub included in each residence

Gourmet Kitchens include:
- Whirlpool Gold stainless appliance package, including:
- Self-Cleaning slide-in Gas Range
- 1.7 cubic ft. family capacity microwave hood combo
- 4-cycle, 5-level dishwasher with optional settings
- Granite Countertops with 6” backsplash
- Australian stainless steel sink with stylish Delta Chrome faucet
- In-Sink-Aerator disposal
- Spacious Pantries (per plan)
- Convenient Center Island (per plan)

Master Suite Baths include:
- Granite Countertops at both bath vanities.
- “Laguna” square sinks with striking chrome bath hardware and accessories
- Attractive tile shower/tub surrounds including shower enclosure with matching chrome
Accents.
This is just a very small sampling of the many upgrades included as standard with Phase 1. The cost of these upgrades has been heavily subsidized by the builder to get people interested.
Not all of these upgrades will be included as standard in Phase 2 !!!!

Also, it is important to know what is not included in either phase:
- You must buy your own Refrigerator
- Washer and Dryer - The washer and dryer must be a stackable unit.

Phase 2
Phase 2 will be twice as large as Phase 1 with 75 units and 4 stories. Where Phase 1 had only 2 water view units, Phase 2 will have 17 water view units. Phase 2 construction has been halted at the foundation and will not resume until sometime near 2011. These units are premium locations at Seabridge and the hope is to be able to offer them when the market is stronger and the builder can more easily justify higher prices and recoup some of the massive investments made prior to the current market slump. Prices will be anywhere from $100,000 to $200,000 more for the same floorplans currently available in Phase 1!

Phase 2 has been built immediately adjacent to harbor boat slips and features gated underground parking the same as in Phase 1. A fabulous harbor walkway runs immediately behind the property. Owners may have 1 or 2 parking spaces depending on the unit they purchase above them.

What is all this going to cost?

On the face of it, this community is a real bargain. You can actually buy a 1 bedroom, 1 bath for less than $350,000 ($349,990). The 6 plans still available in Phase 1 are priced from the $350,000 range for a Plan A on up to $599,990 for a Plan F single bedroom. You can also get a premium two bedroom Plan J with up to 1,732 sq ft for $550,990. The 3 other plans fall somewhere in between. So what we are talking about is a unit priced somewhere between $350,000 and roughly $600,000. Not bad at all for the seaside location, luxury amenities and brand new everything. But there are a few more considerations…

Mello-Roos
This is a new development. That means we can automatically expect a Mello-Roos (see my Mellos-Roos blog). When Proposition 13 passed in 1978, it severely limited the abilty of state and local governments to use property taxes to construct public facilities and services. Things like road maintenance, traffic lights, street lights, storm sewers, water mains, etc for new home developments. The Mello-Roos Community Facilities Act of 1982 enables “Community Facilities Districts (CFD’s) to be established by Counties, Cities and School Districts as a means of obtaining this community funding.

Simply put, a Mello-Roos allows local CFD’s to collect a monthly tax from new home buyers instead of through state property taxes. The developer does not have to pay for these services so they don’t usually include their cost in the home price. That allows the homebuyer to purchase their home at a lower price from the developer. The CFD Mello-Roos just makes sure that the new home buyer does pay for these services without violating state law or impacting the bottom line for the developer. This is a 30 year Mello-Roos at Port 121.

HOAs
HOAs are Home Owner Association dues for the upkeep and maintenance of the landscaping, security systems, walkways, recreation center, pool – you get the idea. These fees are based on the square footage of the units purchased and can range from $290/month for a plan A to as high as $381/month for a plan J. These are “developer subsidized for the first 4 years of home ownership,” after which the community HOA’s will revert to an additional $100 dollars a month for each plan.
It is also interesting to note that these HOA costs are actually inclusive of a Seabridge Marina HOA and a Port 121 HOA. The two are separate HOA’s paid concurrently by the new home owner.

Besides your principal and interest for your mortgage, there is a 1.25% Annual Ventura County Property Tax based on your Home Sales Price. Amount / 12 for monthly cost.
Mortgage Insurance is .0026 times the Loan Amount / 12 for monthly cost.

Plan Costs

Here is a little break down of the plan costs and parking available for Phase 1 units.

Plan/ HOA/ Mello-Roos/ Total/Month/ # Parking Spaces

A/ $290/month/ $223/month/ = $513/month/ 1 space
B/ $335/ $263/ = $598/ 2
E/ $350/ $263/ = $613/ 2
F/ $335/ $263/ = $598/ 1
G/ $365/ $263/ = $628/ 2
J/ $381/ $340/ = $721/ 2

So what does all this add up to?

The least expensive Port 121 unit is the single bedroom Plan A. Your mortgage amount will depend upon the amount you borrow to finance this home. There are a number of conventional and FHA programs to help first time home buyers into a mortgage. Some will pay a portion of the down payment and even most of the closing costs when combined with CAL-HFA programs. They probably won’t beat the incentive offered by the developer.

The developer is working with DHI Mortgage www.dhimortgage.com to offer an interested buyer several incentives. They will pay closing costs. These are costs which cannot be financed into the loan itself and can be considerable. Roughly $4,000 to $8,000 or more depending on your purchase price, credit rating, etc. (This is a shoot from the hip value – check with your lender.)
Another developer incentive to buy down the interest rate for purchasers to “around 6%”. Interest rates fluctuate daily, so this is a very rough rate.

These numbers will certainly rise over time with a $100 increase in the HOA guaranteed after 4 years. These are Phase 1 numbers only. Phase 2 purchase prices and associated monthly HOA and Mello-Roos will most certainly be much higher.

-All offers must be accompanied by a $7500 deposit.
-No contingent offers will be accepted. If you need to sell a property in order to
purchase this one. It cannot be a contingency of purchase.
-There is a normal (required by law) 3 day right of recission on any offer made.

Summary

This is a luxury community and it really is going to be tough for a first time home buyer to manage. For a larger family, Port 121 is going to be a tight squeeze with only 1 or 2 bedrooms. However, if you don’t want to mow your lawn or do any home maintenance at all, this is a very user friendly opportunity. If you are not concerned by the monthly costs, the homes are very comfortable. I’m told many are being purchased as second homes by investors and folks wanting a scenic get-away retreat from LA.

Make no mistake though, these are not economy homes by any definition.

I would hazard a guess that if you believe real estate is a cyclic market that will generally trend upwards in value, that land is not an unlimited quantity in Southern California, and that seaside properties are often in greater demand than similar homes further inland, you will find these homes to be a good value. Maybe a good long term investment as well.

Warmest Regards,
Mark Thorngren

mark@markthorngren.com
www.markthorngren.com
Free Realty Times Video Newsletter
(805) 504-0228

All of the figures used in this report were current as of the day written. I cannot guarantee the accuracy of any of the information presented beyond today. All prices and fees are subject to change without warning.

What's Going On At Victoria Estates in Oxnard, CA

2008-10-13T22:07:00.000-07:00

Victoria Estates In Oxnard, CA

Think of a premium community with all the amenities including a guarded gate, swimming pool, spa, recreation building and parks - built between late 2002 and 2004. Put it next to an award winning golf course that also just happens to be adjacent to where the Dallas Cowboys practice in late summer. Fill the sky with fresh air from the Pacific Ocean about a mile away and cool breezes which defeat the need for air conditioning. Put two major yachting harbors with restaurants and shopping - equidistant to the North and South about 4 miles. Now take these gorgeous homes which recently were listed from the high $800K’s to the $1.3M range and subtract $100K to $200K from their sales price – nothing is currently listed above $812,900 and one home is currently being listed for $550,000!

That’s Victoria Estates.

Today is October 13, 2008 and I have just finished looking at everything which has come to the market in Victoria Estates since October 1, 2007. There were 65 properties listed in the local MLS (Multiple Listing Service). By my count, there were an almost equal number of Foreclosures and Short Sales (33) as there were conventional home sales (32).

These are truly tragic numbers for home owners and sellers. They accurately reflect the time period during which home mortgages were given to anyone with a pulse, often with variable rate clauses which nobody ever expected would activate. Get behind on your mortgage? Just refinance in a year and drop your rate. Worst case, just put it on the market and it will sell in a day.

Then things changed. The new Fed chairman raised interest rates 9 times in one six month period. Home prices began to soften as fewer folks could afford the new mortgage rates and the high home prices. Homes took longer to sell because home owners knew their homes were worth and insane amount of money and would not compromise. Gradually, home owners began to see their interest rates adjust upwards on their new homes and they were suddenly upside down on their mortgages. They owed more than they could easily sell their homes for. Still, sellers refused to “give away their homes.”

The rest is history. Home owners couldn’t refinance to a lower mortgage rate on a home that was worth less than when they purchased it after only a year or two. Banks couldn’t make as many stated income loans and found they needed to tighten up their lending limits. This made it harder for folks to buy homes from the people desperately trying to sell. Banks began to pull out of escrows that had been approved just days earlier. We lost 1/3 of our mortgage lenders in the fall of 2007.

Victoria Estates is the poster child of the Real Estate Meltdown.

Victoria Estates is a buyers dream. There are 5 tracts within the Victoria Estates Development.

River Glen 1 This tract has had 14 homes listed during the last year. HOA’s range from $120/Month to $144/Month.

River Glen 2 This tract has had 4 homes listed during the last year. HOA’s range from $140 to $144/Month.

Glen Eagles This tract has had 13 homes listed during the last year. HOA’s range from $120 to $144/Month.

Legacy This tract has had 24 homes listed during the last year. HOA’s range from $120 earlier this year to as high as $147 this year.

Pacifica This tract has had 10 homes listed during the last year. HOA’s range from $120 late last year to $150/Month late this year.

I have spent considerable time in the last several months escorting astute investors, bargain hunting new home buyers and folks who just want to live somewhere special into Victoria Estates. I don’t have a crystal ball, but I don’t think these beautiful homes will continue to fall in price forever. In a shorter time than most “experts” predict, I think we’ll see home values in this development firm and turn.

There are 15 homes currently listed between $550,000 and $812,900. Many are short sales which I do not personally recommend, but they can be done. Ask me why I don't like short sales and I can recount a number of horror stories. Still there are some reasonable opportunities. There 8 homes currently in escrow ranging in price from $599,000 for 2,900 sq ft, to $830,000 for a home just under 4,500 sq ft.

If you are not from California these prices will shock you. If you are from California and are aware of what near ocean properties sell for, these prices will shock you as well.

17 homes have sold in the last 12 months for prices ranging from $570,000 this last April, to a home which sold for $875,000 a month earlier in March! Let me illustrate how volatile our market is with an example of our market right now. The last 3 homes which sold in Victoria Estates were all sold in July. They were all 4 bedroom and 3 bath homes built in 2003 and they sold within 3 days of each other.
The first was a 2,882 sq ft home sold July 22 for $704,000.
The next was a smaller 2,464 sq ft home sold July 25 for $605,000. That is $100,000 less and only about 400 sq ft smaller.
The last home was a larger 3,137 sq ft home sold July 25 for $640,000, but with a smaller yard. Still, that is a $64,000 lower price for a larger home!
The 2 lower priced homes were on 7500 sq ft lots while the higher priced home was on a 12,000 sq ft lot.

There were 10 properties which were cancelled during escrow and they ranged in price from $629,000 for a 3,300 sq ft home, to a home originally offered for $1,300,000 for 4,000 sq ft. It was reduced in price after 188 days on the market to $800,000 before it was cancelled. That might have proved to be an unfortunate decision as home prices over the last year have dropped to a median $704,000 in Victoria Estates.

There were also 13 homes which became expired listings in the last year. Most homes are listed for a six month period, but can be listed for any time frame the seller desires and the listing agent will agree to. These homes were listed for $679,000 for a 2,700 sq ft home on up to 1,099,000 for a 3,100 sq ft home. Most likely, these folks can afford to wait out the market.

It is interesting to note that 25 of the properties this year, of the 65 that were listed, did not sell but were cancelled, expired or released from showing.
Again, 11 homes were foreclosures and 22 were/are short sales. Those numbers just totally destroy any normal market price supports.

It’s definitely hunting season for buyers at Victoria Estates.

Just as an aside, I have also checked the rental market from what is on the MLS. These are probably not all the rentals for the year - a lot of that happens outside of the MLS. There were 9 homes listed for rent, ranging from $2,800/Month for a 2,700 sq ft home, to $3,500/Month for a 3,300 sq ft home. Both of those homes are currently available along with a 3,600 sq ft home for $3,000/Month.

Some investors are purchasing these homes and renting them back to their former owners. Everyone wins a bit in that situation. Families can keep their kids in school and maybe buy some time to decide their next move. Investors can rent the home at a bargain rate to someone who will very likely take good care of their investment.

I hope you have found this information useful. All the figures and information used for this report were drawn from my own personal experience working in Victoria Estates and from the information available to all realtors in the Ventura County Regional Data Share. I would be happy to share CMA’s for any of the 5 tracts with interested folks and can even send you mapped reports of these tracts as well. Please know that I do value your comments and suggestions.

Please feel free to contact me for additional information on these homes at:
mark@markthorngren.com or call me direct at: (805) 504-0228
You are welcome to visit my website at http://www.markthorngren.com/ where you can also keep up with current mortgage and real estate news in a video format from RealtyTimes.com. It’s fun, informative and it updates nearly every day. Bookmark it and use it as often as you like.

It is important that you know, that I do have time for you, your family, friends and people you like who could use my help right now. Your introductions are my greatest compliment.

Warmest Regards,
Mark Thorngren

Can You Tell Me What a Mello-Roos Is

2008-08-26T21:17:00.000-07:00

As always, today’s families recognize the importance of living in a community that’s as desirable as their home itself. Mello-Roos enables critical community facilities to be provided whenever they’re needed at a lower cost ultimately to homeowners. By doing so, Mello-Roos ensures a higher quality of life for every family in that community. Perhaps most importantly of all, Mello-Roos helps preserve the value of your new home investment.

Where did Mello-Roos Come From?
When Proposition 13 passed in 1978, it severely limited the ability of local governments to use property taxes to construct public facilities and services. As a result, Californians were forced to find new ways to fund public improvements in their respective locales.

The Mello-Roos Community Facilities Act of 1982 was co-authored by Senator Henry Mello of the Monterey area and Los Angeles assemblyman Mike Roos. Enacted by the California legislature, the Act enabled “Community Facilities Districts” (CFD’s) to be established by Counties, Cities and School Districts as a means of obtaining this crucial community funding. Today the colloquial name for the Facilities Act of 1982 is simply “Mello-Roos.”

What Public Facilities are Funded by Mello-Roos?
The Problem: Before Proposition 13, state and local governments used income collected through property taxes to build new roads, schools and other necessary community facilities. In order to continue building residential areas, these same governments were forced to require builders of new communities to pay for these public facilities. Consequently, these funds were added to the cost of the new homes. These price increases hurt new home buyers and fewer people were able to afford these higher priced homes.

The Solution: Since state funds are not available to provide the quality of facilities necessary in every community in California, Mello-Roos makes the acquisition of timely financing possible. In addition, Mello-Roos can provide financing for other vital community needs. These needs include the construction and maintenance of public roads, traffic light systems, storm sewers, water mains, police stations, fire stations, ambulance services, public libraries, recreational parks, museums and cultural facilities.

Now homeowners are paying for these improvements through their Mello-Roos Community District as part of their property taxes, spread out over 20 years or more instead of as an initial increase in their home purchase price.

How is Community Funding Provided?
Let’s say, for example, that plans for a new school are approved in your Community Facilities District. To finance the school, tax exempt municipal bonds are issued. These public bonds are repaid (or secured) over an extended time through the levy of a special tax (Mello-Roos) on properties that benefit from the facility. This tax is usually added to the annual property tax bills (over a 20-25 year period) of residences within the CFD.
Commercial and industrial property owners are also subject to Mello-Roos. All proceeds raised from Mello-Roos assessment must be used exclusively to finance the specific public facilities and/or services that were authorized in your CFD.

How Much Will I Be Assessed?
This will vary from one CFD to another. Typically, an adopted formula that relates to the size of the home (square footage or lot size) is used to determine the amount of an individual assessment. In general, the special taxes and assessments do not exceed 1% to 1.5% of the market value of new homes. Moreover, the total amount of all annual taxes (including property tax) usually does not exceed 2% to 2.5% of the home’s market value.

Will My Mello-Roos Tax Increase?
It can. This special tax can increase up to a maximum rate of 2% per year over a 25 years period. On the other hand, it’s possible that this tax will decrease, should state or other funds become available that could be used to reduce existing bond indebtedness, or be used to construct new facilities in lieu of additional bond sales.

Can I Choose How to Pay for Mello-Roos?
Yes. As already mentioned, the special assessment can be added to your property tax bills until your portion of the tax is paid off. A schedule of maximum special tax payments over a period of 25 years is available to homeowners prior to the close of escrow. Those who purchase a new home also have the option to pay for their Mello-Roos tax in it’s entirety at the time they buy. However, because statistics indicate that the average homeowner in California moves every 7 years, it’s often prudent to spread the payments over time.

Why Can’t Builders Bear the Cost of these Facilities?
They can. But ultimately, the builder must recover these considerable costs in the form of higher home prices. Commercial construction loans acquired by builders typically incur higher rates of interest than CFD financing, which accrues at significantly lower rates. That makes the Mello-Roos a cheaper option for you.

Does Mello-Roos Makes Sense?
Not all new home communities are affected by Mello-Roos special taxes. For example, sometimes a new neighborhood is built within existing communities. Because public facilities are already in place, they are not subject to Mello-Roos taxes. However, as cities expand into adjacent undeveloped areas and farmland, newer developments will continue to use the Mello-Roos device to finance improvements we all take for granted in our neighborhoods.
Mello-Roos lowers these costs a bit since CFD (Community Facilities Districts) financing is less expensive than what builders would have to charge to underwrite commercial loans.

So California voters approved Proposition 13 to lower their taxes. Our lawmakers took the constraints we imposed on State and local government spending and developed a way to fund all the infrastructure we expect in a new home development. They did it by collecting Mello-Roos assessments from those homeowners in new neighborhood developments instead of taxing all California voters. Wouldn't it be interesting to know how many of those new home owners voted for Proposition 13?

What’s the Bottom Line?
New home developments often advertise sale prices which do not emphasize special assessments like the Mello-Roos. Between HOA’s and Mello-Roos and other assessments, you can easily see an additional 2% monthly charge based on the sale price. Since this is not a developer added cost, but one that is imposed by local government, these homes look like huge bargains. Not entirely misleading, it is still a little bit like advertising a brand new car without the tires.

Check the fine print. This is your local Community Facilities District answer to Proposition 13. It is a way of coping with a difficult situation. Instead of the State, County or local Communities footing the costs for these street lamps and schools – you the new neighborhood homeowner become the bottom line.

Warmest Regards,
Mark Thorngren

Much of this article was shamelessly copied from title company reports. Namely Fidelity National Title Company and Chicago Title. Two very fine and naively trusting supporters of my business.
Special thanks to Tammie Coulter of Stewart Title Company for contributing material for this offering.

The preceding summaries are provided for informational purposes only. For a more comprehensive understanding of the legal/tax consequences of Mello-Roos, appropriate consultation is recommended with an attorney and / or a CPA for specific advice.

www.markthorngren.com
mark@markthorngren.com
(805) 504-0228

Senator Feinstein Update on FHA Limits

2008-07-23T08:28:00.000-07:00

Dear Mr. Thorngren:

Thank you for contacting me to express your support for permanently increasing the conforming loan limit. I appreciate the time you took to write and agree with you.

The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) plays an important role in insuring home mortgages for those in underserved communities. It is critical that FHA programs be modernized to provide more homebuyers and borrowers looking to refinance with the opportunity to obtain an FHA loan. This remains especially important in California where the cost of housing remains high. For homebuyers faced with so-called "jumbo loans" subject to higher interest rates, raising the government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) conforming loan limit will bring more liquidity to the market and lower interest rates.

On February 13, 2008, the President signed the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 (H.R. 5140) into law. As the bill was being developed, I sent a letter to Senator Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) expressing strong support for increasing the previous GSE conforming loan limit of $417,000 and the FHA loan limit of $362,790 to $729,750. While I am pleased that a temporary increase was included in the bill, the new loan limits will expire on December 31, 2008.

On July 11, 2008, the Senate passed the "Foreclosure Prevention Act of 2008," (H.R. 3221) introduced by Senators Christopher J. Dodd (D-CT) and Richard C. Shelby (R-AL). Prior to Senate consideration of the bill, I urged Senators Dodd and Shelby to keep the FHA loan limit and GSE conforming loan limits at the current level of $729,750. The Senate passed its version of H.R. 3221 on July 11, 2008. While the Senate-passed version of the bill would only raise the loan limits to $625,500, the House-passed version would keep them at their current level. On July 11, 2008, I joined 52 members of the California Congressional delegation in sending a letter to leaders of the Senate and House leadership urging them to retain the $729,750 limits in the final version of this important bill.

I fully support the higher limit and will continue to push to make it permanent.

Thanks for writing.
Sincerely yours,
Dianne Feinstein United States Senator
Further information about my position on issues of concern to California and the Nation are available at my website http://feinstein.senate.gov/public/. You can also receive electronic e-mail updates by subscribing to my e-mail list at http://feinstein.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=ENewsletterSignup.Signup.

Update on RiverPark Development in Oxnard

2008-07-05T14:05:00.000-07:00

Here is a little update to a blog I wrote about the RiverPark development last year. This is inresponse to questions about the local High Schools, gangs, flood zone considerations and home buying expenses. There are also some very basic suggestions for people considering a home purchase in the next few months to make their experience more productive and less stressful.

Yes there are some real expenses with living in Riverpark that include Mello Roos, Oxnard City tax and HOA fees. The Mellos Roos and City tax can total close to 2% of the purchase price yearly, while HOA's average around $250/month. So, for a $450K home, your are talking about an extra $1,000 a month in home expenses.

Having said that, my experience has been that these are nicely built homes at very competitive prices even with the additional add-on expenses. In the last year, these same homes have had a number of price reductions and incentives thrown in to make them really good opportunities for folks who need a brand new home. So for the same $400K to $450K this year, you can often find yourself making an offer on a much nicer home for the same money.

My daughter attends High School at El Rio and we have found their programs for college bound students to be outstanding. There are some possible new developments for students as well which include El Rio High becoming one of only two High Schools in Ventura County (Newbury Park High is the other) to qualify for an international student accelerated learning class this year. It should be fully instituted by next year.

Gangs are a problem in Oxnard, but there have been some very effective law enforcement initiatives taken in the last few years to cripple their influence.

RiverPark has it's own school, fire department and is building some shopping areas as well.
In order to address the flooding issues, I would recommend you contact the City of Oxnard Public Works Department, FEMA for flood plain maps at www.FEMA.gov or http://www.floodalert.fema.gov for a list of insurance companies that offer flood insurance in your area. You can find additional commments on flooding issues in my latest blog on my personal website http://www.markthorngren.com.

Should you buy now or wait. Let's look at each possibility.
Buy later....or Buy now. Home prices will most likely continue to fall for months if not years yet. My personal bet is some areas will turn around before others. Unless you know your neighborhoods intimately, you may have difficulty recognizing when it begins to happen. According to local title information (Land America Lawyers Title - Tom Piszczek - (805) 302-8667) home prices in Oxnard have gone down over 34% from March'07 to March '08, and 16% in Camarillo over the same time frame. Those are some pretty big numbers.

I always do a Comparative Market Analysis of my own for my clients. This is a one year look at a very specific neighborhood for any property my clients are interested in making an offer on. I find price trends, comparative home sale prices and listing information to base the offer or sale price for sellers and buyers needs.

Let us say that home prices continue down for at least another year. During the year we may see the buyers continue to take advantage of this market. Some of these folks are investors who are very savvy to our local markets.

In January my clients purchased a home listed for $600K in a neighborhood with a $604K median price. The sellers were motivated and my buyers made an offer for $450K plus $8,000 in closing costs. It was accepted! That is a 25% price reduction - almost a full years price drop right now!

Those are the kinds of deals that can happen in today's market. Does it always happen like that? No, but such a thing was unheard of a year ago. Will that type market last another year? Impossible to say.Mortage programs are much more strict but progress has been made through FHA and CalHFA to make 100% financing still available to qualified first time home buyers. Very competitive rates are available through FHA for most other well-qualified individuals.

You should have yourself pre-approved with a lender you trust before you go looking for a home. If you don't know what you can afford, you are wasting your valuable time. Also,most realtors are not going to spend a lot of time driving people around at $4.65/gallon if they don't know what they are qualified to purchase or what program best fits their personal needs.

Get several Good Faith Estimates from different lenders and tell them what you are doing. Make them compete for your business! Watch you expenses and fees shrink as they try to lure you their way. Make sure the good faith estimates include pro-rated taxes, Title and Escrow fees. It is not uncommon to receive Good Faith Estimates that look very competitive until you realize they don't include all the normal expenses for your transaction.

Ask your competing lenders to explain any differences in competing Good Faith Estimates. Sometimes your realtor can give you and idea of what is really happening as well.

FHA comforming loan limits have been raised from $417,000 to roughly $729,000 until December 31 of this year. There is great pressure being put on Congress to extend this deadline and it may indeed be extended. Hasn't happened yet but might. If it doesn't, FHA limits will probably default back to $417,000 next year. There are not very many single family detached homes available in California for less than $417,000.

We have no idea what interest rates will do over the next 12 months. That is a very fundamental gamble if you are undecided about when to buy. A very small interest rate change can have an immense effect on the interest you pay over 30 Years. Right now the Fed is under increasing pressure to start raising interest rates again. Higher gas prices, food prices and shipping costs are having a huge inflationary impact on our economy. That should be a concern to more people than just home prices. I'm guessing that after the presidential election we could see higher home mortgage interest rates.

This is a buyers market. It will continue to be a buyers market for months to come. When it changes, it will change gradually and at different times in different towns and neighborhoods. You won't easily see the change until you are past it. That is my thought on today's market. What do they say about a bird in the hand?

Warmest Regards,

Mark Thorngren

http://RealtyTimes.com/REUv/MarkThorngren or
http://www.markthorngren.com
(805) 504-0228

Oxnard – Riverpark – 1,800 homes along the Santa Clara River
The largest new home development currently being built in Oxnard is Riverpark There are 15 different home plans by my count, located just North off the 101, along the banks of the Santa Clara River. HOA’s vary by neighborhood, by square footage and by builder. Standard Pacific Homes is currently marketing the Celadon tract. Their HOAs can run from less than $100.00 up to nearly $300.00. There is also a 30 year Mello Roos which is about 1.1% but it is combined with a city special tax assessment. Agents in the development have told me to just multiply the Sale Price x 1.9 to get a rough idea of the combined total. Add the HOA and you will come close to your monthly fees. The HOA in the homes built by Standard Pacific Homes includes outside maintenance, landscaping and lender insurance – typically fire. Add these to your mortgage payment for your monthly housing costs. This does not include all utilities or your personal property insurance. Even with all the added costs, the homes tend to be very competitively priced with more floor space than I would expect. In one case that I know of, a home was offered for 70K below market with a special 6% give back at close of escrow. It was the last home in the tract and had fallen out of escrow previously. This was a nicely upgraded home in a nice location. Good things can happen. Call them to find out what is currently available or I can check for you if you prefer.Shea Homes is offering the Market Street Tract of luxury townhomes. Plans 1 – 4 range in price from 486K for 2,362 sq ft to 545K for 2,631 sq ft. HOAs are up to $292 for Phase 2. This covers the Riverpark master association dues ($32) with the balance for Fire and Casualty Insurance of the building and exterior maintenance of the building. There is a property tax rate of 1.15% of the sale price, plus a Mello Roos Tax Assessment of $4,587 per year. Several other tracts are still under construction. They have a new school opening there this Fall. There are very nice websitesq at http://www.riverparklife.com/ or www.standardpacifichomes.com or www.SheaHomes.com.The tract names are:• Celadon• Destination• Luminaria• Market Street• Promenade• The Avenue• Tradewinds• Trellis• Westerly• Collage• Meridian • Morning View• Veranda• Waypoint • Daybreak
May 10, 2008 Mark J Thorngren
Mark has summed it up really well, about the declines yet to come, the variations in the markets in terms of turning down and up (coastal is last to fall, first to rise for example), and that lending is fairly loose if you look at higher limits and 100% financing for FHA. We had 140 FHA sales last month.
This is where I disagree on interest rates: since it's all about the monthly payment, any rise in interest rates NECESSITATES a lower home price.
If I were even thinking of selling, I would make sure I sold BEFORE1. Interest rates rise, thus shutting out more buyers and forcing me to lower my price 2. More foreclosures increase the supply of homes. As Chris Thornburg was quoted in the NC Times today, nothing is more pernicious to prices, than a high supply.

FEMA & Camarillo Floodplain Issues

2008-04-27T11:45:00.000-07:00

When my family first moved into Camarillo back in 1998, the city was experiencing widespread flooding from "La Neina". The rains were heavy for weeks at a time and many of the lower elevations around town were suffering. Since that time many extensive flood control projects have been carried out around the county.

Notable among the projects was a thorough clean up and channeling of the Calleguas Creek. This creek had overflowed in several locations where roads crossed it. The bridge embankments were too narrow and had caused the creek to back up at several locations. New bridge construction and a host of other improvements have greatly eased the risk of flooding in Camarillo.

Despite these improvements, FEMA went ahead and redrew flood maps for our city which include diagrams of areas likely to flood over a 100 year time frame. FEMA has expanded the flood areas to include a new, even less likely area of flooding called the 500 year flood area.

The City of Camarillo which has spent a great deal of it's resources to protect itself from flooding, has been understandably concerned about FEMA's new maps. The city has worked to provide homeowners with a better understanding of the effects the new maps may have on the need for and the cost of insuring their homes because of FEMA's new maps.

Insurance companies often require homeowners to carry flood insurance according to the way these FEMA maps are drawn. Insurance can run from around $300 to upwards of $2,000 per year and is normally required for Federal or federally related mortgage financing.

I have copied and scanned some of the literature the City of Camarillo distributed during 2006 in response to FEMA's new maps. I would be happy to email these to anyone with an interest in their property status.

The long and short of it all appears to be that if you live in one of the mapped areas, you would be well-advised to contact the City of Camarillo, FEMA and your home insurer to determine how each will treat your property. Contact information for City of Camarillo - Public Works Department Ph (805) 388-5340 or www.ci.camarillo.ca.us. FEMA - John Magnotti at (202) 646-3932 or john.magnotti@fema.gov or www.fema.gov/mit/tsd.

Warmest Regards,
Mark Thorngren

http://www.markthorngren.com & http://realtytimes.com/REUv/MarkThorngren

Senator Dianne Feinstein on Home Ownership Assistance

2008-03-31T16:02:00.000-07:00

Dear Mr. Thorngren:

Thank you for contacting me regarding homeownership assistance programs. I appreciate the time you took to write and welcome the opportunity to respond.

The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) plays an important role in insuring home mortgages for those in underserved communities. It is critical that FHA programs be reformed to provide more homebuyers and borrowers looking to refinance with the opportunity to obtain an FHA loan. These opportunities are especially important in states, such as California, where the cost of housing is high. For homebuyers faced with jumbo loans subject to high interest rates, raising the government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) conforming loan limit will bring more liquidity to the market and lower monthly interest rate costs.

On February 13, 2008, the President signed the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 (H.R. 5140) into law. I strongly supported the provision of this bill which temporarily increases the FHA loan limit and GSE conforming loan limit to 125 percent of an area's median home price, up to a maximum of $729,750. On February 5th, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development published these revised limits for California. Please know that I will carefully monitor the FHA, Freddie Mac, and Fannie Mae as they implement these new loan limits. You may review the newly published FHA loan limits at http://www.HUD.gov. The GSE loan limits can be viewed at http://www.ofheo.gov.
You may be interested to know that conference negotiations to resolve the differences between the House-passed version of the FHA reform bill (H.R. 1852) and the Senate-passed version (S. 2338) are ongoing. These two bills would permanently increase the FHA loan limit, lower down payments, and increase the availability of FHA's reverse mortgage program, among other reforms. I understand that this issue is of major importance to Californians facing high home prices and the threat of losing their home to foreclosure. Please know that I will continue to do everything I can to help on this critical issue.

Once again, thank you for writing. I hope you will continue to keep me informed on issues of importance to you. If you have any additional questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to contact my Washington, D.C. office at (202) 224-3841. Best regards.

Sincerely yours,

Dianne Feinstein
United States Senator

Further information about my position on issues of concern to California and the Nation are available at my website http://feinstein.senate.gov/public/. You can also receive electronic e-mail updates by subscribing to my e-mail list at http://feinstein.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=ENewsletterSignup.Signup.

Subsidized Housing Programs in Ventura County

2008-03-18T15:44:00.000-07:00

Many folks coming to Ventura County find the home buying process a daunting task. Without a good credit score, a large income or substantial down payment, things can be just plain tough. To tell the truth, there are many realtors and real estate consultants that have very little knowledge of what kind of help is available to these folks. Everyone seems to rely on lenders or mortgage brokers for knowledge of financial assistance programs. Most lenders have some kind of in-house programs or might even know a little bit about FHA and CAL-HFA programs. After that, knowledge of most home buyer assistance programs gets a little thin.

Last week I was browsing our local newspaper's real estate section and came across an article about the Area Housing Authority of the County of Ventura. I’ve heard of some of their programs before but had never found source material. I felt like a gold miner that had just stumbled across the mother lode. I downloaded 31 pages of their material and had to quit because I was using up all my printer's color cartridges. There is a very large amount of helpful information on their wonderful website. Check out http://www.ahacv.org/home_buyers_workshop.shtml.

This page will give you time, place and date for the next home buyer workshops. The following information is taken directly from the county website.

"The Area Housing Authority is committed to serving the community by being a resource for housing information. With the skyrocketing prices of homes in Ventura County, first-time home buyers are often overwhelmed with the decision of whether to buy a home here, continue renting, or move to a cheaper area.

Many new home buyers are unaware of State and local programs that help with down-payments, closing costs, and lower interest loans. Households with income between $55,000 and $113,000 may qualify for a variety of assistance programs.

The Area Housing Authority sponsors educational home buying workshops in English and Spanish several times throughout the year. The workshops are provided through a mutual agreement with experts in local, State and federal funding resources.Workshops cover tax benefits, raising your FICO score, and loan options for first-time buyers available through the state of California.

To find out more or to reserve a spot in an upcoming workshop, please call 1-800-549-0337, extension 167. Seating is limited at our workshops and we encourage you to reserve your place to ensure adequate seating. To speak with Housing Authority staff regarding a workshop, please call 805-480-9991, extension 235.For a schedule of upcoming workshops, please click here or go to http://www.ahahomebuyingschool.com/ ."

To find information on Housing Programs which include:

-Section 8
-Low Rent Public Housing
-Agency Owned/Managed Housing
-City Sponsored Rental Assistance

Click on http://www.ahacv.org/index.shtml & click again on the Housing Programs Tab (left side)

The Area Housing Authority of the County of Ventura serves the cities of Camarillo, Simi Valley, Moorpark, Thousand Oaks, Ojai, Fillmore and the unincorporated areas of Ventura County.

So what happens if you don’t live in one of those 7 areas?

Easy. Oxnard. Port Hueneme, Santa Paula and the City of San Buenaventura (Ventura) all have their own housing authorities which you can find contact information for at: http://www.ahacv.org/community_resources.shtml.

None of these programs are exactly the same, but most of them provide a degree of benefit and usually can be combined with FHA or CAL-HFA loan programs to provide most of your lending needs. The combination of programs is really remarkable help for first time buyers. By the way, the definition of a first time buyer is not what you might think. It can be someone who has not purchased a home for 3 years. Check with your lender and Housing Authority folks for details.

For those folks who are having a really difficult time just finding a place to lay their heads, there is some provision for them as well at: http://www.ahacv.org/emergency_housing.shtml
This is some really great information on local agencies that provide emergency housing assistance. Here is the basic info from that link.

"The Area Housing Authority does not provide emergency housing services. Please contact the agencies listed below for emergency housing information.

You may also call the 211 Help Line by dialing 2-1-1 from any land line phone (cell phone users, 800-339-9597. The 211 Help Line provides information about and referrals to health and human services, including emergency housing. The 211 Help Line is available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and multi-lingual service is available.

Homeless Information and Referral (County of Ventura, Human Services Agency)Phone:805-987-6715 or 805-484-2082Hours:M – F 8am to 4:30pmWebsite:http://www.vchsa.org/Ventura County Homeless and Housing Coalitions(temporary winter shelter locations)Website: http://www.vchhc.org/

Ojai Community Assistance Program (through HELP of Ojai)Phone:805-640-3320Hours:M – Th8:00am – 12:00pm and 1:00pm to 5:00pmFriday 8:00am – 12:00pm and 1:00pm to 4:00pm

Coalition to End Family ViolencePhone:805-983-601424-hr Hotline: 800-300-2181 or 805-56-1111Website:http://www.thecoalition.org/

RAIN Project Transitional Housing (County of Ventura)Phone:805-389-3308 (24-hrs)Address:1732 South Lewis Road, Camarillo

Community Action of Ventura County (Goldberg House)Phone:805-648-6088Address:946 E. Thompson Blvd., Ventura,Hours:M – Th: 8 am - 3:30 pmFriday: 8 am – 3:00 pm

Simi Valley Homeless PartnershipPhone:805-527-2533

Housing Reports and Necessary Documents http://www.ahacv.org/housing_reports_and_docs.shtml

Administrative Housing Plans and Documents
Admissions and Continued Occupancy Policy (ACOP)
Agency Owned Housing Plan
Section 8 Admin Plan
Organizational Emergency Plan
Public Housing Application
Instructions for Public Housing Application

Board of Commissioners
Current Board Agenda - Coming Soon

List of Commissioners

Data and Reports
Income Limits
Payment Standards
Utility Allowances
Overview of Assistance by Community
Detailed Summary of Assistance by Community
2007 What Can You Afford

Community Housing Programs - Coming Soon
Presentations
Myths of Affordable Housing Presentation (July 2007) - Coming Soon

If you do not have the Free Adobe PDF Reader, Click Here to get it.

March 21, 2007 Income Limits
Median Family income for a family of four is $79,500

There is a great deal more information available for renters, folks looking for the reduced price housing maintained by the various housing authorities and income limits to qualify. Some of these programs require you to use their approved lenders. Others allow you to shop for the best deal on your new home mortgage program costs. There is everything here you need to get started except a really good local mortgage broker to help steer you through this sea of information.

I can fix that. Call Aracely Avila (805) 504-0221 or email Aracely@YieldFinancial.com. Aracely once worked for the Oxnard Housing Authority and has more than 10 years experience helping your home ownership dreams to come true.

Of course you are welcome to contact me or browse my website for additional Chamber of Commerce websites, or the individual city websites and county information. http://www.markthorngren.com/.

Warmest Regards,
Mark Thorngren

Lower Prime Rate vs Higher Mortgage Rates

2008-03-18T10:32:00.000-07:00

Market Changes, Prime Rate Reductions vs Home Mortgage Rate Increases

There is a very defined difference now from the last six months that has made many of us optimistic for the year. I had many folks last year who wanted to wait with their purchase because of falling home prices, and many home sellers were still hanging tough with their prices. Obstinate sellers who have not kept up with the market, have continued to suffer from falling home prices and are now much easier to work with as they realize their predicament. Home Buyers I have been talking with over the last year or two are now calling me to make their initial consultations. I like that! That did not happen last year. That is another reason why I’m optimistic.

Last Fall, I had a large number of home sales that began escrow but did not finish because of mortgage changes during escrow, and seller’s not willing to compromise on terms. That is changing now. Mortgage programs are beginning to gel and lender standards are stabilizing from the free fall – here today, gone tomorrow – conditions that existed last Fall. Our buyer climate is much different this year and presents fewer fundamental changes. We have a much better chance to make it through each escrow this year.

The next challenge our industry faces will be how to reconcile falling interest rates from the Fed with rising home loan interest rates. Investors are worried about the bond market. As the Fed lowers it’s interest rates, the bond market suffers and mortgage investors in the secondary market raise their home mortgage interest rates. Home buyers will tend to save more money on their home purchases with a lower interest rate than on a modest home price decrease. We have seen interest rates fall in January, then turn around and move up steadily through February. Those rate changes will have a far bigger impact on buyers than a 7% to 10% decrease in home prices. Do the math on any home you care to pick and I’ll bet you see what I mean.

I think we need to carefully watch to see if the cost of mortgage loans continues to increase. If the Fed continues to cut the Prime Rate, the response from secondary investors & the bond market may be to raise the cost of home mortgage interest rates. It is possible that rising home loan interest rates could more than offset falling home prices. Home buyers may pay less and have more to choose from if they buy now.

Sellers will most likely continue to experience an eroding of home prices, with stiff competition from bank foreclosures until the number of foreclosures falls in a year or two.

Just the way I see it today.
Warmest Regards,

Mark Thorngren
htttp://www.markthorngren.com

2008-02-28T17:58:00.000-08:00

The Market is Waking Up In Ventura County For Home Buyers

I spoke with Bob Curtiss the Regional Sales Director for Property I.D. today. This company provides natural hazard property disclosures to home buyers. Without getting too deep, this company researches a home to see if it is in a flood hazard, fire hazard, or earthquake hazard area and discloses this and much more information to buyers and sellers so they can be aware of what environment the home is in. They are the best at what they do in my experience. They are always in demand by realtors for their excellent service to our home buying clients.

Bob gets around, and I enjoy speaking with him because he is the harbinger of news in real estate for a large area in Southern California. He had just returned from a business trip to Lompoc, Santa Maria and the Solvang, Santa Ynez area. The word from Bob is that business in home sales is booming in those areas. That has not always been the case, but especially in Lompoc this is a big change.

Yesterday I was helping some folks who were in the process of finishing up their escrow and were signing their loan documents at one of our local Title and Escrow companies. As you may already know, these folks represent a neutral third party provider of escrow services. They manage the money and paperwork flowing between the home buyer and the home seller. When nobody is buying a home, they aren't working. When the industry is busy, they put in some very long hours.

In this case I was discussing our local market with Margaret Kelly of LandAmerica Lawyers Title. Margaret is a beautiful lady and an awesome talent with a 20 year track record of success in our local market. By the time Margaret becomes involved in a transaction, it means that a realtor has been working with prospective home buyers to determine their needs, locate their dream home and negotiate a purchase agreement with the home sellers. This process can last a few weeks or it can last upwards of a year or more. My point is, by the time Margaret sits down with my clients, the market shift has already matured a month or so.

Margaret says the last 3 or 4 weeks - most of the month of February - have been markedly busier than previous months. She is busy once again. People are making up their minds to get off the fence and make their home choice now. The conditions are wonderful for some awesome home opportunities and buyers have seen it, made their decision and are now a month into the process with Margaret.

I wrote of this market change several weeks ago. Now many service providing professionals like Bob and Margaret are confirming these observations. I can't wait to see what all the newspapers say about our market when next month's reports on this month's sales show the increase. All the rhetoric about our market continuing to wither for another 2 years we hear from "economic experts" will be difficult to reconcile with the facts.

Is our market healed now? I don't think so, but I think it is beginning to heal. I think we must define our market first. Let's say our market is made up of home buyers and home sellers.

The home buyers are now beginning to come out in force. They are taking advantage of current high inventories, low prices and falling interest rates. They are dialing in the new changes to FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac programs and seeing huge opportunity for themselves and their families.

Home sellers continue to suffer. They are seeing more buyers at open houses, but the buyers are fussy. As prices continue to fall and foreclosures continue to scue neighborhood prices, sellers continue to suffer long listing periods and declining equity. Much of this is driven by the continued foreclosure problem, but some of this is also due to more restrictive lender requirements as well as generally negative news coverage of our market.

I think all of these negative market forces are slowly beginning to correct themselves.

Mortgage programs requirements are more restrictive than a year ago, but there are new, higher lending limits from all the federal lenders. Combining these programs with CAL-HFA programs from the state, gives some well qualified first time home buyers real hope again for finding affordable housing. I think lender programs will continue to improve and become more user friendly in coming months. Don't look for stated income loans to make a strong come back any time soon though!

As home sales continue to increase and lending practices standardize over the coming months, I think we will begin to see a gradual shrinking of our home inventories. Developers are slow to build when prices are soft, so our inventory of homes will tend to build very slowly. As demand continues to build, the relatively fixed number of homes available will slowly drive prices back to stable market values.

I think this process will accelerate once the foreclosure problem eases.

Unfortunately, we don't appear to have a good solution on how best to ease the foreclosure crisis. Foreclosures will have a continued dampening effect on our market until that problem can be effectively addressed or has time to work it's way out. Sort of like trying to fight a large forest fire. Eventually it will burn itself out, but we all would like to minimize it's damage and find a good way to fight it.

News media coverage will begin to shift back closer to reality as sales numbers increase once again. No thanks to them.

The article I have included in this blog comes from the Ventura County Star and illustrates my point. I expect we'll see more of these articles in the coming months as newspapers and other media finally pull their heads out of the sand and look around at the real world again.

Mark Thorngren
http://www.markthorngren.com/

Good news on the real estate, mortgage front
Jim Woodard, ColumnistSunday, November 11, 2007

Despite discouraging news on the financial front, the sluggish home sales market should bottom out by the end of the first quarter of this coming year, it was noted in a recent study and report from the National Association of Home Builders.

The housing market will start to turn around next year for a number of reasons: the overall economy and job growth will continue to move ahead at a decent pace, core inflation is under control, the credit crunch in mortgage markets is showing signs of easing, the supply-demand equation will be better balanced as builders begin to whittle down their excess inventories, and another Federal Reserve interest rate reduction of a quarter-point on Oct. 31 will help keep mortgage rates low.

That's the prediction of David Seiders, chief economist for the NAHB.

"With the housing sector facing a large backlog of unsold inventory, new construction starts and permits won't begin to move forward until sales firm up. Home sales should bottom out by the end of the first quarter of next year, and housing starts will be up in the third quarter, assuming the inventory overhang stabilizes," he said.

The tightening standards for home mortgages will not derail a national recovery in the housing market, according to the NAHB. However, it will complicate the system for a while.
The negative impact of the new standards on housing markets comes in two forms. First, tightening lending standards have reduced the availability of some loans and raised the price to riskier borrowers. Second, it creates the potential for a cycle of defaults and price declines, depending on the local home price environment and strength of the local economy, the NAHB study report noted.

NAHB's short-term forecast is based on several assumptions: skillful management of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, maintenance of solid growth in personal income and employment, a manageable wave of home mortgage foreclosures and better performance of mortgage markets going forward.

The report observed that the long-term potential for housing activity is very good. "By the end of 2009, we may be at a pace of 1.5 million units of new housing production (including manufactured homes). Once we are out of the woods, we should see good growth in front of us — maybe 2 million units per year," it stated.

While there is much press coverage about today's troubled real estate markets, there are many markets throughout the country that have minimal subprime mortgage exposure and are now experiencing a stable market.

These markets experienced modest and sustainable home price appreciation during the boom years and have relatively strong local economies. The markets are positioned to outperform the national trends with earlier and stronger recoveries than the more troubled markets, according to NAHB's chief economist.

These little-publicized markets are primarily located in the Pacific Northwest, mountain states and in the Southeast. The areas are now recording single-family home construction permits at or above pre-boom levels.

"The contrast between the strongest and weakest markets across the country points out substantial regional variation and suggests that steep nationwide home price declines and mortgage defaults are unlikely," Seiders said.

There's more good news on the mortgage front. More people are managing to keep up with payments on mortgage loans made in recent months, according to data from First American Loan Performance, a research firm.

The trend reflects more conservative lending policies adopted by mortgage companies this year in the wake of a surge in defaults and foreclosures, said Mark Carrington with First American. "Even so, defaults continue to rise in proportion to the overall number of home loans outstanding nationwide, mostly those made between 2003 and 2006 when lending standards were growing more lax," he said.

An increasing number of parents of college-bound offspring are purchasing a condo or small house in the area of the college for their student's residence while attending the college or university. In some cases, it appears to be more cost-effective than paying for a room in a dorm.
The student will often rent out a portion of the purchased unit to another student to minimize the investment. When the student's attendance at the college is completed, the unit will be sold, hopefully at a profit.

There are now about 3 million campus houses and condos that have been purchased by students or their parents, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors. That represents about 8 percent of the nation's 37.4 million investment properties, but excludes 6.8 million vacation homes.

In addition to the possible financial advantage, owning such a residence gives the student more freedom, and a choice of roommates. For parents, it offers a chance to recoup some of the rising costs of higher education, assuming it turns out to be a good investment.

Many parents are spooked by the unknowns in such an arrangement. Can the extra space be rented at the projected rental amount? Will the student handle his extra freedom responsibly? Will the property later sell at a profit? These and other concerns tend to keep the dorms fully occupied.

(Jim Woodard, a Ventura resident, writes a nationally syndicated column and freelance features in addition to his Star columns. He also is a storyteller with a Web site at: www.jimwoodard.net. E-mail: Storyjim@aol.com.)

FHA Changes To Shake-Up Home Mortgage Industry

2008-02-04T20:46:00.000-08:00

This article was sent to me today by one of our local government loan program experts - Wendy Mueller - an awesome Mortgage Broker with Platinum Home Mortgage (Formerly Pinnacle Financial). She is probably the most knowledgeable person I've met concerning government home loan programs. The fact that she is still busy helping people while 1/3 of her competitors have gone out of business this last year says something about her abilities also. By the way, Wendy is one of my company's competitors - I still listen to her.

Mark Thorngren
http://www.markthorngren.com

Hello, please read below, with all the great changes that are coming we need to be prepared as this is not only going to help buyers become home owners it will also ease up some of the jumbo market. Don’t forget that FHA can be combined with CALHFA for an extra down payment assistance benefit.

I. Stimulus Bill: FHA and GSE Mortgage Limit Increases

We are increasingly confident that the Senate will pass the stimulus package this week. The timing of the President’s signing of the bill will depend on whether the Senate passes any amendments to the stimulus bill. There are no amendments expected on the mortgage limits. If the Senate passes amendments to the tax incentive portion of the bill, it will require the House and Senate to have a conference before the final bill can then be passed by Houses of Congress and be sent to the President for signature.

A. Timing of the legislation

We expect the stimulus bill to be passed by the Presidents’ Day recess on February 15th. It could happen sooner if the Senate passes the stimulus bill without any amendments this week. We would expect the President to sign the bill almost immediately after passage (within a couple of days after passage by the Congress if not sooner).

B. Content of the legislation

The mortgage limit provisions should remain intact. An amendment might be proposed to lower the FHA maximum amount but we would be very surprised if it passed. See our email from last week for additional details about the provisions.

As we have discussed, the legislation proposes four temporary changes for FHA:

· Raises the base loan limit (“floor”) to 65% of the current GSE limit ($417,000) = $271,050

· Raises the maximum FHA loan limit from $362,750 to $729,750 (175% of the GSE base limit - $417,000

· Increases the calculation factor from 95% to 125% of area median sales price for determining “high cost” areas

Attached is a chart demonstrating the impact of this change in a portion of the metro areas around the country. As a reminder for any area w/ a current FHA limit above $206,000, the area will benefit from this change.

Calculation Process

Take the current mortgage limit and 1) divide the limit by .95 to determine the median sales price and then multiply the median sales price by 1.25 to determine the new FHA limit.

· Implements Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac ratios for calculating maximum loan amounts for two-, three- and four-family units in all of the above categories

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac two-,three- and four family unit properties increase the same percentage that the single family limit increases. In 2006. the GSE single family limit increased 15.95% and the mortgage limits for multiple units increased 15.95%.

This change should result in a significant increase in FHA limits for multi-unit properties. In the past, FHA used fixed percentages of the single family limit (i.e. 107% of single family for two family unit, 130% for three-family unit and 150% for four-family units). For example, under the new provision, if the single family limit increases slightly over 100% in a “high cost area” (from $362,790 to $729,750), we would assume the multiple unit amounts would increase the same percentage (slightly over 100%).

C. Implementation schedule

The bill requires HUD to publish the new mortgage limits and data on area median sales prices in 30 days from enactment. However, since Mortgagee Letter 2008-2 was published on January 18, 2008, FHA should be ready to publish limits the day the President signs the bill. Regardless, the new “floor” and areas w/ mortgage limits below the current FHA maximum limit ($362,750) can be determined from available data as we did in the attached document.

We believe it is appropriate to start preparing for the mortgage limit increases as we have outlined above (i.e. training, materials, etc.)

Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac

The bill states that the GSE limits should follow the HUD process. Accordingly, the major difference is Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will have a higher “floor” ($417,000). While the statute appears clear and unambiguous that the GSEs should use HUD data for this process, it is important to remember that the GSEs have a regulator (OFHEO) that could play a role in the implementation process that could delay usage. However, because of the significance of the issue, we expect implementation will occur expeditiously barring some unforeseen issue.

II. FHA Modernization Bill

We now expect the FHA bill will be enacted in February and possibly by February 15th. We understand that negotiations are underway on the contested items. We are uncertain as to how the issues will be resolved. It is expected that the Senate requirement for minimum cash investment of 1.5% will be adopted.
Thank You

You’re First Time Home Buyer Expert

Wendy Mueller
Platinum Home Mortgage
(Formerly Pinnacle Financial)
(805) 907-3136 Cell

Platinum Home Mortgage Corporation and its affiliates do not represent, warrant or guarantee that the integrity of this communication has been maintained or that the communication is free of errors, viruses or interference. Platinum Home Mortgage Corporation. C 2007 All rights reserved. Equal Housing Lender.Platinum Home Mortgage Corporation 2200 Hicks Rd, Suite 101 Rolling Meadows IL 60008

NAR Chief Economist Laurence Yun Discusses 2008

2008-01-14T14:33:00.000-08:00

This was forwarded to me from Deanna Leslie at Old Republic Title (805) 508-6695. Nice to hear positive news for a change. Enjoy!

Mark Thorngren
Movewest Realty, Inc.
www.markthorngren.com

Positive news for Realtors in '08
NAR economist underlines real estate's silver lining
www.inman.com

In all the years I've been writing this column, I have never received such an outpouring of response as I did from the two November articles on how media coverage of negative housing news is hurting our industry.
In spite of gloom and doom of recent news reports on the state of the nation's housing, there is plenty of good news, the most recent of which comes from the National Association of Realtors.
Laurence Yun, the chief economist for NAR, had plenty of positive news for Realtors at last month's conference. Yun attributed much of today's subprime mortgage problem to greed. Wall Street wanted the 10-12 percent return that subprime mortgages yielded as opposed to the smaller returns from more traditional mortgage products. His take on the Wall Street types: "They gambled. They lost."
Yun's outlook for 2008 sees a shift from greedy speculators to serious homeowners. 2008 will be a year of opportunity where there will be serious, healthy business. Furthermore, Yun predicted that the market returns to normal by 2009.
According to Yun, one of the biggest mistakes that reporters make is talking about national trends. Nationally, 2007 was the fifth best year ever on record. Home prices declined about 1.5 percent after a 50 percent run up in prices.
The challenge is that national numbers are pretty much irrelevant. Yun argues that talking about national averages is about as effective as having a national weather forecast. Like the weather, all real estate markets are local. In fact, you may have a buyer's market and a seller's market operating within a single market area based exclusively upon price point. Here are the other key pieces of positive news from Yun's economic report:
1. New housing starts: Even though these are dropping, there was too much building in recent years. The market is simply adjusting to normal supply-and-demand pressures. The inventory is "being controlled which makes stabilization occur more quickly."
2. Foreclosures: According to Yun, the 41 percent increase in foreclosures has resulted primarily from investor-heavy real estate purchases in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada. The majority of these individuals are flippers whose investments did not payoff. More importantly, the number of foreclosures in Utah, New Mexico, North Carolina and South Carolina is actually declining.
3. Under-priced markets and superstar cities: Although the coastal markets are still overpriced, Middle America is under priced. Nevertheless, Yun cites a new trend termed, "superstar" cities. These cities will command premium prices, regardless of what the market does. There is so much wealth concentrated in these areas, that measurements are simply not predictive. In addition to London, Paris, Tokyo and New York, Yun also identified San Francisco, Miami and Seattle as potential new superstar cities.
4. The recovery has started: Other than the three states hit heavily by job losses in the automotive industry (Indiana, Michigan and Ohio), the states that first experienced a downturn in the Northeast, are now in recovery. Specifically, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York and Rhode Island were the first to feel the slump and are now well into a recovery. Furthermore, there appears to be a pent-up demand for first-time buyer properties due to a large number of Gen Ys (born 1977 to 1994) that are now buying their first homes. Falling interest rates will motivate many of these buyers to step into the market now.
5. New jobs and corporate profits are still strong: Corporate profits are still strong with companies as diverse as Microsoft and Jack Daniels reporting close to record profits. Furthermore, the economy has generated 4 million net new jobs and wages are rising.
6. A weak dollar may harbinger more foreign investment in U.S. real estateAlthough the decline of the U.S. dollar will end up costing us more when we go

overseas or purchase imports, it has resulted in more manufacturing jobs returning to the U.S. It also may mean more foreign investment in U.S. properties as well. Just a few years ago, the Canadian dollar was only worth 70 cents in U.S. currency. Today, the Canadian dollar has been hovering at about $1.05 to $1.10 U.S. What this means is that we can expect more Canadians and Europeans to be purchasing U.S. property, because our prices are approximately 50 percent cheaper than they were just three years ago.
7. Real estate: Still the best shelter: For those agents who represent reluctant first-time buyers, Yun points to some interesting research from the Federal Reserve. Between 1995 and 2004, the average renter accumulated $4,000 in wealth. In contrast, the average homeowner accumulated $184,400. Furthermore, the typical homeowner holds their property for six years. Within this period of time, NAR's research shows that approximately 97 percent of the homeowners will have a positive equity position after that period of time.
Bottom line: 2008 represents the best window that buyers will have to find excellent deals with excellent financing. Get the word out there. If they wait, prices and interest rates will be higher and the reluctant buyer may be forced out of the market.

New Clues to Market Change in Ventura County

2008-01-06T17:06:00.000-08:00

The market in Ventura County is showing signs of waking up again. In the last 3 weeks I have had numerous clients begin to search for homes. This is a very different feel from a month or two ago. I'm not sure I can put my finger on any one thing, but I think some of the change is coming from more strong buyers, and also from a developing change in the way banks are doing business. Buyers are adjusting to the changing mortgage market and see the foreclosures and short sales as a wonderful opportunity for themselves. Prices and interest rates are still falling. Banks are carrying an ever expanding inventory of homes they need to get rid of.

Little help is coming from the new government programs aimed at helping out unfortunate home owners who are behind in their payments. These programs are helping only a very small group of people. The Bush Plan is expected to bail out many less borrowers than the 240,000 subprime loans claimed - very ineffective. Meanwhile, in Stockton California - roughly one out of three homes is in foreclosure. However, this is an extreme example. In most towns, REOs are still a small percentage of the total real estate market.

Are any Federal Programs working? Maybe the new mortgage limits for FHA insured loans will help a bit at 417K, but there are not going to be a great many folks affected in this market. We need something more like a 650K loan limit to really jump start this county's market again. Still, the market offers many underpriced homes for people who are ready to buy right now.

A few days ago in Ventura County, there were 4970 active listings, only 351 of which were REOs. (Bank owned sales). Of 468 properties in a pending status, only 72 were REOs. That means less than 10% of our market is being offered by the banks. Are there a lot of REO's? Yes! Are they driving the market? It depends.

In neighborhoods with many foreclosed homes and short sales, the normal market has been gutted. Some of the newer Oxnard neighborhoods have seen 25% to 30% reductions in home prices over the last year. Some homes listed close to 800K a year ago are now below 600K. However, in neighborhoods where there are few foreclosures, the market prices are much less affected and tend to indicate about a 10% reduction over last years prices. Both of these conditions can exist in locations within miles of each other. That is one of the wonders of this market. Most neighborhoods fall somewhere in between.

I spoke yesterday with another Realtor in Thousand Oaks who had offered a 1462 sq ft home several months ago at 650K. It is a short sale (they owe more than the asking price). Within two months they dropped the home to 450K. The realtor told me they had to repost the price at 617K to slow down all the many offers that they received and had to forward to the foreclosing banks Asset Manager!

What I am intrigued by - is how the mortgage bankers are coping with the deluge of short sales and foreclosures. Even though the percentage of foreclosures is small, the bank asset managers are literally drowning in foreclosed properties. Nationwide, it is predicted there will be 2 million subprime foreclosures by 2009. In September of 2007 there were 72,571 California NOD's (notice of Default) filed. Ventura County NOD's are up 138% in 2007 with 1,377 filed as of October.

What does all this really mean?

I think we are beginning to see banks more willing to consider low offers for homes they own or are about to own. They must move these homes more expeditiously or face even more extended business losses. The trick for realtors will be to identify those banks which are most buyer friendly. Those banks which can adjust to the new times and are willing to do what it takes, will accept lower offers from the lucky home buyers that are fully capable of meeting the new lending requirements.

I have clients now in a transaction for a townhome which is in a neighborhood market of around 550K. The listed price for one of these homes is now less than 400K on a short sale. The bank is considering our offer, even though that is a huge drop from the mortgage owed on that home. Six months ago no bank would have looked at such an offer.

The willingness of some banks to consider offers for less than the mortgage owed (on REO and Short Sale properties) is the biggest change I see in our market today.

I believe that there is a developing realization among banks, of the hole they have dug for themselves. Their outmoded REO policies are preventing them from quickly selling these homes and it is hurting the banks financially. We may be seeing the beginnings of a new banking paradign and willingness to accept a bit of a loss up front, rather than a protracted draining of bank coffers as these homes sit and sit and sit on the market. Bank auctions are also becoming more frequent as another indication of willingness to settle at a loss.

It will be fascinating to see how this new trend develops over the next few months as we enter the traditional home buying season.

Mark Thorngren
Movewest Realty, Inc.
http://www.markthorngren.com/

The Senate and the House Debate FHA Reform

2007-12-20T17:13:00.000-08:00

The article below is from the National Association of Realtors eNewsletter. The initial commentary is mine. Now the House and Senate are finally coming up with some substantive ideas. Raising the FHA loan limits is an action that could have a huge impact on the industry, allowing more first time home buyers into the market. It would also allow for more single loan home mortgages and the recalibration of what a jumbo loan is for the entire industry. Senate wants to raise the limit to $417,000 while the House could go as high as $729,950. I'm pulling for the House version!
Mark Thorngren

Happy Holidays from the Housing Opportunity Program!

Senate passes FHA Reform
After some touch and go moments, last week the full Senate passed FHA reform legislation. The bill was delayed for nearly a month in the Senate as a couple of Senators issued a legislative holds on the bill. Late last week Senators Coburn (R-OK) and DeMint (R-SC) lifted their holds which paved the way for the measure to pass the Senate by a vote of 93-1. Much credit is due to the grassroots effort of REALTORS® in Oklahoma and South Carolina as well as the effort of many REALTOR® volunteer leaders who flew to Washington in early December to specifically lobby for this bill. The bill, S. 2338, differs from the house version, H.R. 1852, in a couple of key areas and the conference committee meetings that will be held to resolve these differences are expected to be contentious. One of the key differences expected to illicit the most debate is the discrepancy in FHA loan limits. The Senate bill increases these limits to $417,000 while the House bill increases these limits to as much as $729,750 in high cost areas. The House bill also gives the Secretary of HUD the discretion to raise this limit by as much as $100,000 in specific markets for a limited time period. NAR has urged Congress to conference the bill as soon as possible, as a reformed FHA program will help homebuyers better afford a home and it will also help homeowners refinance into a safe mortgage product. Read the NAR press release.
For more of Mark Thorngren's Real Estate Blogs visit www.markthorngren.com.

Fed Weighs in on Mortgage Reform

2007-12-20T11:52:00.000-08:00

This report was emailed to me today from Lorie Schweitzer at Flagstar Bank - LorieSchweitzer@FlagstarBank.com

I think most of us would consider these "reforms" to be pretty much common sense considerations that might have kept most lenders and home buyers out of trouble. The point I find especially interesting, is that the Fed may be trying to mandate tax impounds now. Previously, home sellers could choose between having a monthly tax impound included in their mortgage or elect to have their taxes paid in two installments on 1 Nov and 1 Feb each year. The statement says that creditors would have to establish "escrow accounts for taxes and insurance", we'll see what that means as this legislation works it's way through. What follows is the actual article from Business Week.
Mark Thorngren

Today the Federal Reserve Board, under the authority of the Truth in Lending Act, unanimously voted to propose important changes to the mortgage industry. According to Business Week, the following proposed changes would affect subprime loans or those loans the Fed defines as "higher-priced mortgage loans" (loans with rates at least 3 percentage points above a comparable Treasury security for first mortgages and 5 percentage points for second loans, or home-equity loans):
Creditors would be prohibited from engaging in a pattern or practice of extending credit without considering borrowers' ability to repay the loan.
Creditors would be required to verify the income and assets they rely upon in making a loan.
Prepayment penalties would only be permitted if certain conditions are met, including the condition that no penalty will apply for at least sixty days before any possible payment increase.
Creditors would have to establish escrow accounts for taxes and insurance.The Fed also proposed another set of rules for all mortgages, including what the Los Angeles Times called "stricter disclosures on 'yield spread premiums.'" These rules include:
Curb or better disclose broker incentives..
Prohibit coercion of appraisers.
Prohibit loan servicers from engaging in unfair practices.
Require better disclosure overall.The proposal has been submitted for a 90-day period of public comment. After this timeframe, revisions could be made and the proposal must be voted on again. According to the Christian Science Monitor, "the Fed has indicated it would start to implement [the new policies] next year."Proposal highlights from Business WeekStatement by Chairman Ben S. BernankeHow Fed proposal affects legislation

For more Real Estate Information visit Mark Thorngren's blogs at www.markthorngren.com

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson Presents Mortgage Bailout Plan

2007-12-12T13:43:00.000-08:00

What the Mortgage Bailout Means for You
Thursday, December 6, 2007 - Provided by BusinessWeek Online

On Dec. 6, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, with the support of President George W. Bush, unveiled a plan to aid certain homeowners who face the prospect of higher mortgage rates in the next few years. Paulson worked with banks and other mortgage companies to develop the initiative, and thanked them for their involvement. "We have worked through an evolving process to help minimize the impact of the housing downturn on homeowners, neighborhoods and the U.S. economy," he said. While the plan is ambitious and is designed to bring stability to the shaken economy, it will affect only a narrow slice of homeowners in the U.S. "This is not a silver bullet," said Paulson. Here are some answers to questions you may have.
Can you get your mortgage payments lowered because of the bailout?
It depends. If you've got an adjustable-rate mortgage, you may qualify under certain conditions. If you've got a standard mortgage with a fixed interest rate, you're not affected.
Which adjustable-rate mortgage holders are affected?
Only a small group. To qualify, you need to have received your loan sometime between Jan. 1, 2005 and July 31, 2007, and you need to be facing a reset of your interest rate sometime between Jan. 1, 2008 and July 31, 2010. If you're within this range, you may be eligible to have your interest rate frozen, so you can keep your current, lower rate for five years.
Who qualifies within that range?
The bailout is really designed for homeowners who could run into trouble if their mortgage payments are raised sharply and face the prospect of losing their homes. If you're well enough off that you can afford the higher mortgage payments after a reset, you won't qualify. And if you're in bad enough shape that you can't handle the current low interest rate, you won't qualify. For example, if you've already fallen behind on your mortgage payments, you're not eligible for the rate freeze.
Do you need to live in your home to qualify?
Yes. The plan excludes people who don't live in the homes for which they have mortgages so that speculators can't benefit.
Why is there going to be a bailout?
Bush, Paulson, and the Administration are concerned about the fallout from the housing slump. If many people fall behind on their mortgages and have to give up their houses, there will be a series of negative repercussions. First, tens of thousands of Americans could be forced to leave their homes. They would lose whatever equity they had. Consumer spending more broadly would likely slow, hurting the economy overall. In addition, home prices could fall even more quickly than they are now. That could hurt consumer confidence well beyond those people directly affected.
Is the bailout going to be enough?
It depends on your definition of enough. The deal will add some stability to the housing market, but it won't stop all the problems in the troubled sector. The same day Bush unveiled his plan, the Mortgage Bankers Assn. said that foreclosures had reached a record high in the third quarter. The share of mortgages that have entered foreclosure hit 0.78% in the quarter, up from the previous high of 0.65% set in the previous quarter. At the same time, delinquencies for all mortgages rose to 5.59%, from 5.12%, in the second quarter. None of the people who are delinquent or facing foreclosure will be helped by the plan.
The deal almost certainly won't stop the decline in housing prices. Investors are betting that there will be double-digit declines in home prices in nine of 10 major markets over the next year. The only exception is Chicago, and there the estimate is for a 5.6% drop in home prices.
So why not go further?
Some Democrats are criticizing the Bush Administration on that exact point. Senator Hillary Clinton (D.-N.Y.), among others, is arguing for a more ambitious approach, including at least a seven-year freeze on interest rates.
Who stands in the way of such an effort?
Investors in mortgages and mortgage-backed securities. If homeowners are going to pay less on their mortgages than originally planned, then somebody is going to lose money. These aren't just fat cats on Wall Street—although many such firms have invested in these securities—they're also pension funds for teachers, firemen, and police, as well as mutual funds whose clients include all sorts of individual investors. They probably even include homeowners who are facing the prospect of higher payments on their adjustable-rate mortgages.

What Do All Those Letters Behind a Realtors Name Really Mean?

2007-11-27T12:39:00.001-08:00

When I first started out as a Realtor on my way to becoming a Real Estate Consultant, I had no way of understanding what all the letter designations behind a Realtors name meant. As it turns out, these designations do have nationally recognized significance among members of the realtor community. Unfortunately, these designations are proudly displayed to "one and all" usually with no explanation of meaning or value. In an effort to make clear what these mean, I have downloaded the official NAR (National Association of Realtors) designation descriptions. Many of these designations have their own websites.

The effort and study required to obtain some of the designations - like the GRI Designation which requires a year of classes -can be significant, while others require much less time to achieve and are aimed at providing enhanced services to a specialized group of folks - like the SRES designation. I hope you enjoy deciphering this secret world of Realtor Designations.

I have downloaded these designations from the National Association of Realtors website for folks to see a few of the advanced qualifications that Realtors can earn. As in any other profession, experience combined with education will tend to produce the better professional. There are also many continuing education classes available to Real Estate Consultants, literally hundreds of classes that are nationally recognized by NAR (The National Association of Realtors) to promote higher standards of performance among Realtors.

I think most folks would be well served to ask pointed questions of their prospective Realtors' experience and education.

REALTOR® Family Designation Programs
The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® has nine affiliated Institutes, Societies, and Councils that provide a wide-ranging menu of programs and services that assist members in increasing skills, productivity and knowledge. Designations acknowledging experience and expertise in various real estate sectors are awarded by each Affiliated group upon completion of required courses.

In addition, NAR offers five certification programs to its members.
ABR, Accredited Buyer RepresentativeWith over 40,000 members, REBAC is the largest association of real estate professionals focusing on all aspects of buyer representation. Over 30,000 ABR® designees have completed the REBAC course, passed the test and provided documentation of buyer agency experience.

REBAC (Real Estate Buyer's Agent Council)
Contact REBAC, 1-800-648-6224, or visit the REBAC Web site. ABRM, Accredited Buyer Representative ManagerGeared to real estate firm brokers, owners and managers that have or wish to incorporate buyer representation into their daily practice, designees have taken and passed both the ABR® and ABRMSM course and provided documentation of past management experience. REBAC (Real Estate Buyer's Agent Council)Contact REBAC, 1-800-648-6224 or visit the REBAC Web site.

ALC, Accredited Land Consultant
ALC’s are the recognized experts in land brokerage transactions of five specialized types: (1) farms and ranches; (2) undeveloped tracts of land; (3) transitional and development land; (4) subdivision and wholesaling of lots; and (5) site selection and assemblage of land parcels. Acquire valuable skills through educational offerings leading to the ALC designation.

REALTORS® Land Institute (RLI)
For information on the ALC designation call 1-800-441-5263, visit the RLI Web site or e-mail RLI.

CCIM, Certified Commercial Investment Member®
CCIMs are recognized experts in commercial real estate brokerage, leasing, valuation and investment analysis. The CCIM business network includes more than 7,500 designees and an equal number of candidates principally in North America, but also in Asia and Europe. CCIMs are backed by a respected education program, as well as superior technology products and business resources.
CCIM Institute Call 1-800-621-7027, visit the CCIM Web site.

CIPS, Certified International Property Specialist
The CIPS network is comprised of 1,500 real estate professionals from 50 countries who deal in all types of real estate, but with one common element: they are focused specifically on the "international" market. Whether traveling abroad to put deals together, assisting foreign investors, helping local buyers invest abroad, or serving an immigrant niche in local markets, CIPS designees are consumers' best resource to ensure they are dealing with a professional skilled in the unique aspects of international real estate.
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Call NAR Customer Service at 800/874-6500, e-mail NAR International or visit the CIPS Education Web site.

CPM, CERTIFIED PROPERTY MANAGER®
Acquire valuable real estate management skills through educational offerings leading to the CPM® designation. CPM® members have the competitive edge in every area of real estate management from residential to commercial to industrial.

Institute of Real Estate Management (IREM)
Contact Customer Service at 1-800-837-0706, Ext. 4650 or visit the IREM Web site.

CRB, Certified Real Estate Brokerage Manager
The Certified Real Estate Brokerage Manager (CRB) designation is recognized industry-wide as the measure of success in brokerage and real estate business management. The designation is awarded by the Council of Real Estate Brokerage Managers to REALTORS® who have completed the Council's advanced educational and professional requirements.
CRB designees consistently increase their level of industry knowledge, advance their earning and career potential, increase their firm’s profitability and benefit from active involvement in our network of real estate professionals.
The new CRB Designation Program now provides credit for management experience, higher education and previously earned NAR designations. Additional credits can be earned through the Council's management education programs delivered live or by Self Study on CD-ROM.Council of Real Estate Brokerage ManagersFor more information, contact CRB, call 800.621.8738 or visit the CRB Web site.

CRS®, Certified Residential Specialist®
Agents can maximize their potential by earning the CRS® Designation and joining the organization that has served top-producing residential sales agents since 1977. The more than 35,000 CRS® Designees benefit from nationwide referral opportunities, a professional image that attracts customers, and sales and marketing support. The CRS® Designation is awarded to experienced REALTORS® who complete advanced training in listing and selling, and meet rigorous production requirements.
Council of Residential Specialists Contact Customer Services at 1-800-462-8841, visit the CRS Web site.

CRE, Counselor of Real Estate
The Counselor of Real Estate – or CRE – is a member of The Counselors of Real Estate, an international group of recognized professionals who provide seasoned, objective advice on real property and land-related matters. Only 1,100 practitioners throughout the world carry the CRE designation. Membership is by invitation only.
Counselors of Real Estate Call 1-312-329-8427 or visit the CRE Web site.

GAA, General Accredited Appraiser
Certified general appraisers wishing to increase their visibility should consider pursuing the GAA designation. The GAA designation is awarded to appraisers whose education and experience exceed state appraisal certification requirements and is supported by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Call 1-800-874-6500 ext. 8393 or visit the NAR Appraisal page .

GRI Graduate REALTOR Institute
Members involved in residential real estate who want a solid base of information for their practice will want to participate in the REALTOR® Institute program and earn the GRI designation. NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Contact your State REALTOR® Association for course dates and locations or go to the listing of State REALTOR® Associations available here. NAR maintains a clearinghouse of information for individuals interested in the GRI program. For more information, visit the new GRI site.

PMN, Performance Management Network
The Performance Management Network (PMN) is a new REALTOR® designation that’s built from the ground up to bring you the real-world skills, the know-how and the tools that will keep your business out front and on top of a lighting-fast market. This designation is unique to the REALTOR® family designations, focusing on the idea that in order to enhance your business, you must enhance yourself. The curriculum is driven by the following topics: negotiating strategies and tactics, networking and referrals, business planning & systems, personal performance management and cultural differences in buying and selling.

Women's Council of REALTORS®
Contact the WCR Education Department, 1-800-245-8512 or visit the WCR Web site.

RCE, REALTOR®
Association Certified ExecutiveAssociation executives interested in demonstrating commitment to the field of REALTOR® association management should pursue the RCE designation.

Association Executives
AEs are recognized for their specialized industry knowledge and their association achievements and experience. NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®Contact Renee Holland, 1-312-329-8545. More information can be found at the Association Executives Homepage.

Residential Accredited Appraiser
Certified residential appraisers wishing to increase their visibility should consider pursuing the RAA designation. The RAA designation is awarded to appraisers whose education and experience exceed state appraisal certification requirements and is supported by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Call 1-800-874-6500, ext. 8393, or visit the NAR Appraisal page.

SRES®, Senior Real Estate Specialist
The SRES® Designation program trains REALTORS® to profitably and ethically serve the real estate needs of clients age 50+. Includes first year membership in SRES Council and its umbrella of services. SRES CouncilCall 800-500-4564 or visit the SRES website site.

SIOR, Society of Industrial and Office REALTORS®
Individuals certified with the SIOR designation are top producers in industrial and office real estate brokerage. SIOR's network includes more than 2,800 members in 480 cities in 20 countries on six continents. The Society's mandatory recertification requirement assures clients of the designee's excellence in the fast changing commercial brokerage field. Society of Industrial and Office REALTORS® Contact Membership at 202-449-8200 or visit the SIOR Web site.

NAR Family Certifications At Home with Diversity Certification
A ground-breaking professional education initiative designed to provide America's real estate professionals with training and tools to expand their businessas well as homeownership opportunities for more Americans. AHWD certification relays to the public that those certified have been professionally trained in and are sensitive to a wide range of cultural issues inviting a wider volume of business from a greater variety of cultures. For more information on this course and its business principles, please visit the At Home With Diversity sub-site or contact Diversity, 202/383-1201.

e-PRO®
e-PRO® is a revolutionary training program presented entirely online to certify real estate agents and brokers as Internet Professionals. The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® is the first major trade group to offer certification for online professionalism.
e-PRO® is not just about technology - it's about how you can leverage your most powerful asset, your people-skills, into doing more business on the Internet. e-PRO® gives you: - Exhaustive Internet Training - Unique Competitive Advantage- Professional Distinction - CE credit is now available in several states. For more information on the e-PRO® certification, visit the REALTOR e-PRO® Web site.

REPAsm, Real Estate Professional Assistantsm
REPA is a comprehensive two-day certificate course that provides an intensive introduction to the real estate business and to the specific ways support staff can become valuable assets to their employers. Every administrative employee in the brokerage office, from listing secretary to the personal assistant, will benefit tremendously from this quick-start program.
For more information, visit the Real Estate Professional AssistantWeb site.

Resort & Second-Home Markets Certification
The RSPS is a new certification offered by NAR Resort for resort & second-home REALTORS around the world. REALTORS specializing in resort and second-home markets and interested in demonstrating their knowledge and expertise should pursue the RSPS certification. The RSPS core certification requirements include the NAR Resort & Second-Home Market Course and the RLI Tax-Deferred (1031) Exchange Course. RSPS applicants will also choose from nine different elective choices including courses from the NAR Education Matrix and the NAR Resort Symposium held every 18 months. For more information, NAR Resort 312-329-8393, or visit the NAR Resort Web site.

Transnational Referral Certification
The goal of this certification offered by the National Association of REALTORS® is to prepare real estate professionals to make and receive compensated referrals using the Transnational Referral system developed NAR and the International Consortium of Real Estate Associations (ICREA). Students will learn how to integrate international referrals, resulting in increased income, into their business plans.
When you are involved in an international referral, as a referring or receiving agent, the Transnational Referral Certification demonstrates to other real estate professionals that you are well versed in the procedures of the Transnational Referral system, have pledged to follow a code of conduct in business dealings, and expect that compensation, paid in a timely manner, will be an integral part of the transaction. For more information, visit NAR International: Transnational Referral Certification.

Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL. 60611-4087DC Office: 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001-20201-800-874-6500License Agreement Privacy Policy REALTOR.com Contact NAR Site

NAR Home Buyer & Seller Survey - 2006

2007-10-30T11:38:00.000-07:00

Here is a little survey done awhile back that is more notable for the trends uncovered, than for the actual numbers discussed. I pulled this off the official National Association of Realtors website, so many of the prices mentioned reflect national values more than our local California prices. Enjoy!

Mark Thorngren
http://www.markthorngren.com

Home Buyer & Seller Survey Shows Rising Use of Internet, Reliance on Agents

WASHINGTON, January 17, 2006
Technology is transforming how Americans buy and sell homes in unexpected ways, including how they work with real estate agents and brokers, according to one of the largest surveys of real estate consumers ever conducted. The study was released today by the National Association of Realtors®.

Nine out of 10 home buyers use a real estate agent in the search process, but use of the Internet to search for a home has risen dramatically over time, increasing from only 2 percent of buyers in 1995 to 77 percent in 2005; it was 74 percent in 2004. The next largest source of information for buyers is a yard sign, mentioned by 71 percent of buyers.

When asked where they first learned about the home purchased, 24 percent of buyers identified the Internet, up strongly from 15 percent in 2004 and only 2 percent in 1997. Although most buyers use an agent to complete the transaction, 36 first learn about the home they buy from a real estate agent and 15 percent from yard signs; five other categories were 7 percent or less.

The 2005 National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, based on more than 7,800 responses to a questionnaire mailed to a large national sample of consumers located through county deed records, is the latest in a series of surveys evaluating demographics, marketing and other characteristics of home buyers and sellers.

NAR President Thomas M. Stevens from Vienna, Va., said the findings underscore the complexity of the home-buying process. "Buyers who use the Internet in searching for a home are more likely to use a real estate agent than non-Internet users, and consumers rely on professionals to provide context, negotiate the transaction and help with the paperwork," said Stevens, senior vice president of NRT Inc.

"The real estate industry today bears little resemblance to the way we did business 10 years ago. It is hard to find another industry that has adopted technology so readily to its customers," Stevens said. "Realtors® have invested a lot of time and money in building information technology, and because of these efforts, more consumers than ever are using the Internet in their home search."

The survey shows 81 percent of buyers who use the Internet to search for a home purchase through a real estate agent, while 63 percent of non-Internet users buy through an agent; non-Internet users are more likely to purchase directly from a builder or an owner they knew in advance of the transaction.

"We find that the level of for-sale-by-owners is on a sustained decline and is now at a record low. In addition, a growing share of FSBO properties are not placed on the open market - they're private transactions," Stevens said.

A clear downtrend in FSBOs has been seen since that market share experienced a cyclical peak of 18 percent in 1997. Only 13 percent of sellers conducted transactions without the assistance of a real estate professional in 2005, and 39 percent of those FSBO transactions were "closely held" between parties who knew each other in advance, up from 32 percent in 2004. The FSBO market share was at 14 percent in both 2003 and 2004. NAR began tracking the FSBO market in 1981; the record was 20 percent in 1987.

"In reality, the term 'FSBO' is a misnomer when used to broadly describe homes sold directly by owners. Since two out of five of these transactions are between related parties, and those properties are not placed on the open market, we believe that 'unrepresented sellers' would be a much more accurate term to describe this segment," Stevens said.

The median home price for sellers who use an agent is 16.0 percent higher than a home sold directly by an owner; $230,000 vs. $198,200; there were no significant differences between the types of homes sold. "While many unrepresented sellers are motivated to save on paying a commission, we think the price difference speaks for itself," Stevens said. "Owners without professional assistance also have problems in understanding and completing paperwork, prepping the home for sale, getting the right price and selling within the time planned."

Survey data don't explain the price difference, but Stevens offered some context. "Agents know best how to prepare a home and maximize value, agents provide broader exposure to the market and are more likely to generate multiple bids, and the portion of sales that are between private parties are likely to be at a lower price than those on the open market."

"The housing market today contrasts sharply with predictions a decade ago that the Internet would 'disintermediate' real estate agents, including speculation that NAR membership would fall in half. In reality, it's grown dramatically - selling real estate is not like selling a book or buying an airline ticket," he said.

Realtor.com was the most popular Internet resource, used by 54 percent of buyers, followed by multiple listing service (MLS) Web sites, 50 percent, real estate company sites, 38 percent, real estate agent Web sites, 31 percent, and local newspaper sites, 15 percent; other categories were smaller.

Married couples make up the largest share of the housing market, accounting for 61 percent of transactions. Single women purchase 21 percent of homes while single men account for 9 percent. Unmarried couples were 7 percent of the market, and 2 percent were listed as other. In 2004, single women were 18 percent of buyers and single men were 8 percent.

The typical buyer walked through nine properties, searched eight weeks to buy a home and moved 12 miles from their previous residence. The typical seller placed their home on the market for four weeks, had lived in it for six years, moved 15 miles to their new residence and previously owned three homes, including the one just sold.

NAR's senior economist Paul Bishop said both buyers and sellers use traditional methods to choose a real estate agent. "Word-of-mouth recommendation is the most common way to learn about real estate professionals," Bishop said. "The most important criteria, whether you're buying or selling, are the individual agent's reputation and their knowledge of the local market."

In finding a real estate professional, 44 percent of buyers were referred by a friend, neighbor or relative, 11 percent used an agent from a previous transaction, 7 percent found an agent on the Internet, 7 percent met at an open house and 6 percent saw contact information on a "for sale" sign. Six other categories accounted for smaller shares each.

The most important factor in choosing an agent was reputation, according to 41 percent of home buyers, followed by an agent's knowledge of the neighborhood, 24 percent. In terms of desired qualities in an agent, three categories were rated as very important by more than nine out of 10 buyers: knowledge of the purchase process, responsiveness and knowledge of the market. Of buyers who use an agent, 63 percent choose a buyer representative. Satisfaction with real estate agents is very high, with 85 percent of buyers saying they were likely to use the agent again.

Seller responses are comparable: 43 percent chose agents based on a referral by a friend, neighbor or relative, and 28 percent used their agent previously; 10 other categories were 5 percent or less. Fifty-seven percent of sellers said reputation was the most important factor in selecting an agent, followed by their knowledge of the neighborhood, 17 percent. Eighty-two percent said they were likely to use the same agent again or recommend to others.

Four out of ten respondents are first-time buyers, a finding that is consistent for more than a decade. The median age of entry-level buyers is 32 years, also typical over time, and the household income was $57,200. They made a downpayment of 2 percent on a home costing $150,000, but 43 percent purchased with no money down. Of first-time buyers who made a downpayment, 23 percent received a gift from a friend or relative.

The typical repeat buyer is 46 years old and had a household income of $83,200. They placed a downpayment of 21 percent on a home costing $235,000, but 11 percent of repeat buyers paid cash for their home. In all, 94 percent of buyers and sellers believe their home purchase is a good financial investment.

"To underscore the value of housing as an investment, all you have to do is look at the difference in how repeat buyers purchase their next home - the wealth effect of homeownership provides the greatest source for their downpayment, which is significantly larger," Bishop said. Aside from sellers who pay cash for their new home, 66 use the equity from their previous home for a downpayment.

The most important factors in choosing a location to purchase a home are neighborhood quality, cited by 68 percent, close to a job or school, 43 percent, close to family or friends, 36 percent, and the school district itself, 23 percent; seven other categories were under 20 percent.

NAR mailed an eight-page questionnaire to a national sample of 145,000 home buyers and sellers, based on county records, who purchased their homes between August 2004 and July 2005. It generated 7,813 usable responses; the response rate was 5.4 percent.

The 2005 National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers can be ordered by calling 800/874-6500 or going to the Realtor.org store. The cost is $50 for NAR members and $125 for non-members. It can be ordered on-line at http://www.realtor.org/prodser.nsf/OpenProd?OpenForm&IN=186-45-0506

The National Association of Realtors®, "The Voice for Real Estate," is America's largest trade association, representing more than 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

For more information, contact:
Walter Molony, 202/383-1177, wmolony@realtors.org

© Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® I Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 60611 DC Office: 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001-2020 I 1-800-874-6500License Agreement Privacy Policy REALTOR.com Contact NAR Site Map

Green Knolls Tract in TO

2007-10-26T17:27:00.000-07:00

I did a Comparative Market Analysis for a friend (and client) of mine in the area just Southwest across the 101 from the Oaks Mall. This is about a quarter mile square area and featrures larger sized “move-up” homes built in the 1980’s. The CMA was done on the 12th of October and included 6 active listings and 9 sold listing covering the previous 12 months of activity.

The Active listings were priced between $594,900 and $799,950. The average days on the market (DOM) is 104 days with prices reduced from an average $756K to and average $716K over that time frame. Keep in mind that these prices reflect back just a bit over 6 months.

The Sold listings went for between $550K and $875K. The average days on the market was 58 days and the average sale price was roughly $728K. The sold listings covered 12 months or an additional 6 months before the Active listings in this CMA. These are averaged numbers.

Sold listings give us the best info and here are four homes of particular interest since they are somewhat close in size and square footage.
In November ‘06 a 5/3 2,600 sq ft home sold in 35 days after reducing from 819K to 816K.
In March a 4/3 2400 sq ft home sold in 151 days after reducing from 764K to 745K.
In June a 4/2.5 3000 sq ft home sold in 116 days after reducing from 965K to 828K.
In July a 4/2.5 2500 sq ft home sold in 77 days after reducing from 815K to 801K.

Compare these homes with 3 homes similar to them in the Active category.
In April a 4/2.5 2,800 sq ft home listed for a 189 DOM and reduced so far from 829.9K to 769.9K
In Sept a 4/3 2,800 sq ft home listed for 36 DOM and has not been reduced so far from 799K
In Sept a 4/2.5 2,800 sq ft home listed for 25 DOM and has not been reduced from 799.9K

Summary: These 3 Active homes are of fairly equal size and are being listed between 770K and 800K.
Referencing the trends from Sold listings, my personal guess is that they will sell between 760 and 780K. If that is true, those homes will represent about a 40K to 50K price drop from homes selling in the same area six months ago. That is about 8K per month drop in prices overall. Not too far out of line with what we have been seeing in other neighborhoods in East Ventura County. Contrast that with some Oxnard neighborhoods where we have seen homes listed a year ago in the 770’s and 780’s now listed for 600K and less!

You are welcome to study other market information and blogs on my website at http://www.markthorngren.com

It is important that you know that I do have time for you, your family, friends and people you like who could use my help right now.

Mark Thorngren

Personal Comments & Link to CAR Market Review

2007-10-24T12:45:00.000-07:00

These days we continue to hear nothing but bad news about the real estate market from our media. Every newspaper, every tv newscast and all the magazines tell us of the difficult times everyone can expect. We have listened to the experts for two years now and watched the falling numbers of homes sold and the rising numbers of foreclosures.

Personally, as a Real Estate Consultant I don’t foresee any overnight changes. However, I do feel that the negative news media feeding frenzy is not helping home buyers and home sellers either. We eventually will see an improving market for both home sellers and buyers. Mortgage programs will become more realistic, interest rates may even be reduced again. Most importantly, home prices will gradually firm again as buyers take advantage of the numerous bargain opportunities available.

When will this happen? If you read the papers, you can predict the answers from the paper or “expert” who writes the article. Next year, the year after? Who knows for sure. I’ve heard that Donald Trump is saying it could be six months. Some realtors I’ve spoken with are predicting next summer at the latest. Many folks are less optimistic. No one has a crystal ball. Two years ago we began to expect a market correction, but who could have predicted all the fundamental changes we are seeing in today’s market.

On the plus side we are expecting large lending limit increases for FHA and CAL-HFA programs. This will recalibrate the definitions for jumbo loans and may make it possible for more folks to qualify for federally guaranteed home loans. The Fed is meeting twice more this year and it is predicted that we will see additional interest rate cuts. There are frequent hints in the newspaper of new federal legislation to relieve some of the difficulties as well. What final shape and extent this federal aid takes will be fascinating to observe.

Home prices are only now beginning to show signs of bottoming out in some of our local market areas. Some folks believe it will be years yet to see a full recovery. I think that different local markets will need different recovery times. One thing I feel certain of, folks will do better if they look at their own needs and match them against the homes available from now on.

Waiting to be told when to buy a stock rarely results in a profit for an investor. You must look and listen and form your own opinion. By the time your newspaper tells you it is safe to go back in the market, you will be six months or a year past optimum and have far fewer homes to choose from. Burn your newspaper! Go online and check your local market for yourself. You don’t need permission from a syndicated columnist!

Here is a link to the slide show presented by Leslie Appleton Young who is the Chief Economist for the California Association of Realtors at their convention two weeks ago on the 10th of October.

http://www.car.org/library/media/papers/pdf/10-10-07EXPOForecastLAY.pdf
(Press CTRL and click if the link doesn’t come up just by clicking it)

For more observations and surveys you are welcome to visit my website blogs at http://www.markthorngren.com/

Warmest Regards,
Mark Thorngren

Resale Prices at Village at the Park

2007-10-21T23:20:00.000-07:00

The Village at the Park development in Camarillo -http://www.VillageAtThePark.com/index.html/
is approaching the final sales stages. We are beginning to see some resale numbers from those homes purchased in the earlier sales years. I have done some comparisons of those homes offered during the last 12 months of activity. These numbers are derived from our local MLS and the Ventura County Coastal Association of Realtors. The comparisons include 68 homes and are broken down into $100,000 increments which run from the lowest priced home at $398,990 which was an expired listing in October of 2006, all the way up to $1,049,000 for a home that is being actively marketed right now. The information presented here does not intentionally include rentals.

This is my own analysis and does not include information on the new homes still being built and offered by the various builders at Village at the Park. I am not affiliated with, nor do I receive any consideration from the various builders, contractors or service related industries at Village at the Park for this analysis. That means I’m getting myself into trouble without help from anyone else! I also caution the reader that although I have been a repeat visitor to Village at the Park, I have never listed a home in that development, and of course most of the sales have been handled by the builders in this relatively new development.

Also, there are several price categories where very few transactions have taken place. My conclusions must be taken with a grain of salt within those categories since each transaction becomes mathematically a major player. I am not considering home upgrades or if a listing might be a short sale. Obviously, these facts can have a significant effect on a home price as well. My remarks are not intended to reflect poorly on the abilities of the listing agents or their clients. That doesn’t mean I won’t poke fun at them. I know they’ll get me back no matter what I say.

There are various categories or sale status terms used for homes listed in the MLS. These are my very abbreviated and marginally accurate definitions for those categories. Each home transaction is very different and sometimes you need a shoehorn to make a specific definition fit. Quotes are from the VCCAR definitions

In all market analysis the best comparible homes are those which have Sold. They are irrefutable evidence of where the market price was at the time the home sold.
Pending or Contingent status homes are of the next most important status since these homes have accepted offers and may soon close escrow and become sold status. Maybe.

Cancelled, and Expired properties I consider failed transactions.
An Expired listing is generally a listing that has timed out. The agent usually will have an agreement - typically up to 6 months to represent the sale of the home. Whatever the agreement states, if the home does not sell in the specified time it usually becomes Expired unless a new listing agreement is made with the seller and the property is re-listed.
A Cancelled listing is a listing which did not make it past it’s listed time frame. There are many reasons this can happen. Poor market pricing – typically a home priced too high for the neighborhood, Seller dissatisfaction with their agent, the failure to meet a condition of sale. “Contract has been cancelled. Check to see if re-listed before calling owner.”

A Conditional Cancellation “is the same as a withdrawal from the MLS. Contract is still in effect.”
A Release from Showing Status According to VCCAR, “this is a temporary withdrawal (clients out of town for a week or two, repairs being made, etc.) The contract is still in effect.”

The Active status is a current listing or sale price of a home on the market. It varies widely depending on if the home is a short sale or foreclosure (usually priced below market for a quick sale), or has been market priced with or without regard to neighborhood short sales. In many cases, it represents the sellers desired sales price without regard to the local market (usually priced too high). Active status homes do reflect market conditions to the extent that you can see how long a home has been offered at a particular price. Presumably the longer a home has been for sale at a specific price, the less accurately it has been priced. As a very rough rule of thumb, you don’t want to see a large gap between the Active price and the Sold price of a similar home sold within a month or two of the Active listing. Why would a buyer pay more for the same home?

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398 to 500K Homes There are only 5 homes in this price bracket.
Sold - Only 1 home in this price bracket has sold in the last year. It sold in March with 1072 sq ft for 407K. It was on the market for 91 days and was reduced by about $1,000 during that time. Obviously, it was well priced.
Contingent - One 1,553 sq ft home went contingent on 1 Oct for 499,990 after only 12 days on the market. Again this home appears to have been well-priced and the additional 500 sq ft fetched an additional $53,000 or 10k per extra 100 sq ft.
Active – Only 1 home listed. 1135 sq ft for 429K and on the market for 35 days to date. This is 22k above the sale price for the home sold in March that was roughly the same size.
Expired – Two listings expired in of October 2006. A year ago a 1,093 sq ft listing was removed after only 92 days on the market and priced at 421,990. The other listing was removed at 398,990.

Summary: Three of these homes had about 1100 sq ft and were priced from 407 to 429K. The one contingent property was 500 sq ft larger and really belongs in the next price category. The agent was smart and dropped the price into a lower category for a quick 12 day sale. He/she also sold for more - at about 322 $/sq ft compared to the 317 and 319 $/sq ft that two homes are still currently being listed for after 40 days on the market in the 500 to 600k price range. He sold more quickly and at a higher price for his client by dropping his listing into the top of a lower price category. He caught the market as it was dropping!

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501 to 600K Homes There are 7 homes in this price bracket.
Sold – Three homes sold. A 1610 sq ft home sold 24 October 2006 for $599,990 in only 15days. A similar sized home with 1553 sq ft sold in March 2007 for $517,000 in 91 days. This is a market drop of 83K in home prices in just 5 months = over 16k per month from October to March. The third home was a bit larger at 1814 sq ft and sold at the end of August for 600K. This home was originally listed for 745K and took 207 days to come down to the 600k sale price! Obviously, homes will not sell until they find the market price.
Active – Two homes offered. One 1752 sq ft home on the market for 39 days and priced at 559K. The second 1859 sq ft home offered for 44 days at 589K. The second home is significant because it is being offered at 316 $/sq ft versus the 330 $/sq ft of the latest sold property in this price category and is nearly the same size. This might indicate the market is still soft for these homes. That is an 11k lower price in 1 ½ months.
Expired – Two homes expired this year, one 1553 sq ft home in October 2006 after 92 days at 530,990 and one 1920 sq ft home in July 2007 after 120 days at 599K. Actually this second home was originally listed for 650k. If it had been priced at the lower amount from the start it would have had an excellent chance for selling. It was slightly larger and lower priced than the home that did sell at the end of August for 600K.

Summary: These homes ranged from 1553 sq ft to 1920 sq ft and are now listing around 316 to 319 $/sq ft, down from 330 $/sq ft in August. So far we have seen 3 examples of how crucial the effect of proper pricing is on a successful home sale in just these first two price categories.

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601 to 700K Homes There are 14 homes in this price bracket.
Sold - Nine homes sold. These ranged in size from 1610 sq ft to 2126 sq ft and sold from 615K to 695K. The average price per sq ft is a bit more at 336 $/sq ft and average days on the market (DOM) was 46 days for this group. All of these 9 home sales were in October and November of 2006! No other homes have resold in this price range since the beginning of 2007.
Pending – One 1920 sq ft home pending at 629,500 and reduced from 639K after 149 days. It is currently in escrow at about 328 $/sq ft which averages 9 or 10 $/sq ft higher than the lower priced homes.
Cancelled – Three homes cancelled in July and August this summer. Two identical 1920 sq ft homes listed for 619K and 636.5K and one 1814 sq ft home listed in the stratosphere for 699,900! (Remember the other 1814 sq ft home that sold in the lower price range for 600K?)
Expired - One 2,022 sq ft home was originally listed at 749K and after 183 days on the market it had been reduced to 699K and expired this October. Even at 699K it was priced at almost 346 $/sq ft. or roughly 18 $/sq ft above the current pending property at 328 $/sq ft.

Summary: These homes are really only represented by one current Pending home. If one sale can be depended upon to represent this group, then sale prices should average about 328 $/sq ft in today’s market for homes in the 1600 to 2100 sq ft size range. That is 8 $/sq ft less than what these homes sold for as a group last October and November.

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701 to 800K Homes There are 16 homes in this price bracket.
Sold - Four homes ranging from 2004 sq ft to 2806 sq ft have sold this year in Jan, May, June and again in August. That’s not exactly a red hot market, but it is better than the other categories for this calendar year. Remember the one pending 1920 sq ft home in the previous lower price category? It is in escrow for 328 $/sq ft. What do you think these homes average per sq ft? The answer is 327.81 $/sq ft!

In all fairness, this is a remarkable coincidence since the home that sold in Jan was at 300 $/sq ft while the home that sold in August went for 361 $/sq ft. There may be some firming of the market in this price range, but let’s see what the Active properties are doing.
Active – Two homes are listed here and provide a real contrast to each other. One home is 2181 sq ft which is about 200 sq ft larger than the latest home sale in this category. It has been priced at 729.9K or just slightly higher than the last home sold at 723.5K. The second home listed is much larger at 2806 sq ft and is listed for 769K. This is just 5K above the same size home which sold in June for 764K. Both of these homes are probably priced just above what the seller actually thinks he will be able to sell for. Since the result would be no actual increase in price from earlier this year, I would hazard the statement that in this price range the market is rather flat with a favorable spike in a recent sales price. That still beats taking a sizeable drop in price.
Cancelled - Three homes in this category. Two homes that were both roughly 2800 sq ft in size were listed at 274 and 287 $/sq ft which is above the 272 $/sq ft of the 2800 sq ft home that sold in June. The other 2181 sq ft home was priced originally at 754.9K and on the market for 128 days. It was eventually reduced to 729.9K and canceled in June. It might have sold if it had been priced there to start with, as it compares favorably with the home that sold in August.
Conditional Cancel - This home is still under contract but has been withdrawn from the market. There was another home that listed in Jan ’07 that was the exact same size and it sold for 795K. It originally listed at 866.5K but within 55 days the agent reduced the home price 71K and caught the market. Not so with our conditional cancel. This home listed originally for 879K some 3 months later. The higher price for this home was presumably because the seller didn’t realize the market was headed down not up! Instead of reducing the home price right away, the home sat on the market for 201 days, gradually reducing in price until conditionally cancelled this month at 759K. Homes are currently listed in this category at 304 $/sq ft while this home was Conditionally Cancelled at about 287 $/ sq ft. That is 17 $/sq ft below the already reduced market price our two active listings represent.
Expired – Five homes in this category. Three of these properties would probably sell if they hung in there for more than 3 months at their final list price. The other two were both listed too high for too long. Sorry if this is a bit abbreviated, but I’d just be repeating my previous discussions for this home status.
Released from Showing - One 2921 sq ft home in this category and priced at 799K it is at 273 $/sq ft which is at the very edge of what these homes sold for in June. In my opinion, a slight price reduction and the home would probably sell.

Summary: This group had the strongest price per square foot and the most sales this calendar year. The smaller 2000 to 2200 sq ft homes are stable around 330 $/sq ft while the larger 2800 sq ft homes are going for a bit above 270 $/sq ft. Outside of those ranges they may have trouble.

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801 to 900K Homes There are 9 homes in the category.
Sold - One 2760 sq ft home sold in 15 days for 829K or 300 $/sq ft. Great Price!
Contingent - Two 3151 sq ft homes which sold for 859K in 53 days and for 879K in 21 days. That is 273 and 279 $/sq ft respectively. Again, very good prices and both sold this month.
Actually, if you look into property history a bit you would see that the home that presumably sold in 53 days was actually previously listed for 133 days at a starting price of 989K! That’s a 130K reduction to get it to market and sold. That’s amazing work by the agent in my book.
Cancelled – There were four properties listed but two were shifted into sold and contingent after reducing their prices. So they were not permanently cancelled. The other two homes were both roughly 2800 sq ft each and within 3 months reduced to a price within 10K of the 2800 sq ft home that did sell. They might have hung in there. 3 months isn’t always enough time to compete, especially if you need part of that 3 months to find the market price.
Expired - Four homes in this category. Originally priced from 859K for a 2800 sq ft home to 969K for a 3417 sq ft home. In my opinion, all of these homes were priced above market for over 120 days each. One home was finally reduced to market but they gave up. The other homes needed a reality check a lot sooner.

Summary: Homes in this category are pending at 860 to 880K for roughly 3200 sq ft. These are especially interesting numbers because these are October 2007 escrows. The slightly smaller 2800 sq ft home sold for 829K in 15 days!

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901 to 1M Homes There are 11 homes in this category.
Sold – One 3879 sq ft home in this category which sold for 950K or 245 $/sq ft. What a great price. And it sold in 1 day! Last January. Ten months ago.
Active – One 4143 sq ft home listed for 915,990. That’s 221 $/sq ft! Just on the market for 7 days now. Run don’t walk. This is a seriously interesting value.
One 3151 sq ft home is listed for 920K. They have already been on the market for 138 days! That compares with the two 3151 contingent properties in the 801 to 900K category that just went into escrow this month for 859K and 879K.
Cancelled – Three of these homes. One 4147 sq ft home started life at 1M and was finally reduced after 154 days to market price at 915K and they gave up. The other two homes started high and still haden’t found market price when they gave up.
Conditional Cancel – There is one 3151 sq ft home which started at 949K 207 days ago and is now at 909K. Sound familiar? You can tell me what it needs to be at now.
Expired – Four homes listed from 913K to 969K. Three of which were 3500 sq ft and one which was 3129 sq ft. Only the 969K home reduced to close to market price. None of the other homes reduced their prices (which were above market). There was only one way these homes were going to sell and they didn’t reduce their prices.

Summary: Homes in this price range are not extremely difficult to price. However, the owners may have a hard time accepting their real market value. Often, they are investors and cannot afford to accept a lower price. We saw repeatedly that 3151 sq ft homes are selling for 860k to 880K. The 3900 sq ft home sold at 950K in January which is probably above market now. The 4143 sq ft model is listed at about 916k and is probably a very good price. We just don’t have any real comps to confirm it.

1.01M to 1.1M Homes There are 3 homes in this category.
Sold – One 3879 sq ft home sold for 1,011,000 in January 2007. Compare that to the 3879 sq ft home that sold for 950K next door and on the same exact date. $61k difference in price! Somebody was motivated, and yes the lot size was the same.
Active - One 3417 sq ft home has been listed now for 80 days at 1,049,000. This story will probably not have a happy ending.
Expired – One 4115 sq ft home which made it from 1.044M down to 1.017K in 85 days. Close but no cigar.

Summary: The market for many of these homes was much stronger this last January. These homes could sell but I suspect they may be priced according to seller needs rather than according to market price. The last 3900 sq ft home in this price range sold in January for 1.011M and I feel prices may have weakened a bit over the last 10 month period. There is a 4143 sq ft home currently being offered at 916K. I would wonder about anything listing for over 950K.

Conclusion: Among the more moderately priced homes there appears to be a gradual resolution of market pricing. However, it appears that as home prices go up, the willingness of owners to part with them at market price diminishes. I’m sure that the new home builders are offering large home discounts on their brand new homes in order to sell them. This can obviously have an adverse effect on those folks who bought at the top of the market two years ago as an investment. With one or two year selling restrictions just now releasing owners to sell, they probably are finding it difficult to recoup their investments. They may be competing with their own home builders. Many of these investors are going to be unwilling to take a loss and sell at a lower price if they can make their payments for a few more years until their equity builds again. That may be part of the reason for the large number of cancelled and expired listings in the more expensive homes. That is really too bad, because these are beautiful homes that deserve to be filled with appreciative families.

For more commentaries and market surveys you are invited to visit my website blog at http://www.markthorngren.com.

Warmest Regards,
Mark Thorngren

Mortgage for the Disciplined - San Francisco Chronicle Article

2007-10-12T15:54:00.000-07:00

Kathleen Pender
Thursday, May 26, 2005

At a time when most homeowners are trying to pay off their loans as slowly as possible, CMG Financial Services of San Ramon is introducing a mortgage that's designed to help borrowers accelerate their principal payments as painlessly as possible.
That sounds like a worthwhile goal, but the loan is complicated and carries an above-average, adjustable interest rate.
Called the CMG Home Ownership Accelerator, the product marries a mortgage with a checking account.
Homeowners directly deposit their entire paycheck -- along with other checks they get each month -- into their mortgage instead of their checking account.
These deposits reduce their principal balance. Throughout the month, they can access their money by writing checks or using an ATM card, just like they would with a checking account or a home equity line of credit. These expenditures increase their loan balance.
At the end of each month, interest is assessed on the daily loan balance. The monthly interest charge is added to principal. The homeowner does not write a check to pay interest or principal.
Even so, "the loan pays off faster than a traditional mortgage because with a lower average balance, there is less interest charged and therefore more of the person's income can stay in the mortgage in the form of principal, " says Doug Nesbit, a vice president with CMG.
How much faster it pays off depends on how much a person makes, how much he spends and what happens to interest rates.
People who earn substantial incomes and save a lot will pay off the loan far more quickly than people with modest incomes that barely exceed their expenses.
People who continuously spend more than they earn will keep adding to the principal and their mortgage will end up like a negative amortization loan.
Nesbit says those kind of people should not get this new loan.
CMG says its accelerator loan "is ideally suited for homeowners with a stable salary, good credit and financial discipline."
Joyce Franklin, a financial planner with JLFranklin Wealth Planning, says "a borrower with financial discipline who wanted to pay down principal could do so on her own, without a fancy product" that charges a premium rate.
The new CMG loan carries an adjustable rate that varies monthly. It is set at 3.25 percentage points over the one-month London Interbank Offered Rate.
That margin is a full percentage point higher than the margin on a traditional adjustable-rate mortgage.
If taken out today, the rate on the CMG loan would start at 6.34 percent. If short-term interest rates continue to rise, it could shoot up quickly. The lifetime cap is 5 percentage points higher than the initial rate.
By comparison, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 5.71 percent last week and the average rate on a one-year Treasury-indexed adjustable-rate mortgage was 4.26 percent, according to Freddie Mac.
Nesbit says CGM needs to charge a higher rate because its mortgage is more "transactional" than most.
Even with the higher rate, he says, most disciplined borrowers will save money over a conventional mortgage because they will pay it off faster.
Kacy Gott, a financial planner with Kochis Fitz, says his firm often advises sophisticated investors to minimize their mortgage payments and put the money they would have devoted to principal into something with a higher expected return. "It's cheap money," he says.
The problem is, many people who minimize their mortgage payment -- by using interest-only loans, for example -- spend their forgone principal payments "shopping the sales at Nordstrom or taking a vacation," Gott says.
Those people, he says, would be better off paying down their principal. But like Franklin, he's not sure the new CMG mortgage is the best way to do it.
Gott says borrowers would need to make sure they don't jeopardize their federal tax deduction for mortgage interest with the new loan.
Nesbit says borrowers would need to keep good track of monthly expenditures to make sure they don't lose the deduction. This is a complicated issue, and CGM says borrowers should consult their tax advisers.
Although the new loan is being pitched as a way to pay down a mortgage quickly, it is technically an interest-only loan for the first 10 years, with the principal being amortized over the next 20 years.
Nesbit says "interest-only" is a bit of a misnomer because "you are making principal payments whether you know it or not" in the first 10 years.
GMAC has agreed to buy and service the loans, Nesbit says.
CMG says similar products have been available in Britain and Australia, but never before in the United States.
My sources confirm this may well be the first of its kind in the United States, but are not sure whether it will be a success.
"The last British product that tried to make it over here was the annuity mortgage," says Keith Gumbinger, a vice president with HSH Associates. That product never caught on.
"My suspicion is it's going to be too complicated for most audiences," Gumbinger says. "It's an interesting concept, but I don't think that it's got legs."
IShares split: Barclays Global Investors has declared stock splits on 12 of its 98 iShares mutual funds. IShares are exchange-traded funds that trade throughout the day on a stock exchange.
The splits -- two-for-one or three-for-one, depending on the fund -- are for shareholders of record June 6 and payable on June 8. They will begin trading on a split-adjusted basis June 9.
The funds being split are trading in the triple digits, some higher than $200 per share. The splits will bring them back into the $50 range. They include some of the best-performing iShares, hence their stratospheric prices.
They include two international funds (MSCI Emerging Markets Index and MSCI-EAFE Index), two real estate funds (Cohen & Steers Realty Majors Index and Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index) and the Goldman Sachs Natural Resources Index fund. The others are domestic small- and mid-cap funds.
Barclays is making the splits because customers, mainly financial advisers, requested it.
"By giving the funds a smaller price, you can be more accurate on your asset allocation," says J. Parsons, a managing director with Barclays. "If you have a $20,000 account split among five asset classes, being able to make shifts in $60 chunks instead of $180 chunks is meaningful."
Net Worth runs Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays. E-mail Kathleen Pender at kpender@sfchronicle.com.

PS Yield Financial Corp in Camarillo, CA now offers this mortgage program. It is hard to understand all it's benefits and believe that they are real. It's real. I have it myself and recommend it to anyone who can qualify.

For more commentaries and local market surveys you are invited to visit my website at http://www.markthorngren.com.

Warmest Regards,
Mark Thorngren

What Real Estate Consultants can say about Megan's Law

2007-10-12T15:43:00.000-07:00

Realtor Question to CAR
I want to share with others the information I found on the Attorney General's Megan's Law Website. Does the law prohibit me in any way from sharing this information?

A person may use the information disclosed on the Attorney General's Web site only to protect a person at risk. It is a crime to use the information disclosed on the Attorney General's Internet Web site to commit a misdemeanor or felony.

Unless the information is used to protect a person at risk, it is also prohibited to use any information that is disclosed pursuant to this Internet Web site for a purpose relating to health insurance, insurance, loans, credit, employment, education, scholarships, fellowships, housing, accommodations, or benefits, privileges, or services provided by any business.

Misuse of the information may make the user liable for money damages or an injunction against the misuse. As a Real Estate Consultant and before using the information disclosed on this Web site, you may want to consult with an attorney or merely suggest to others that they view the Web site for themselves.

For more commentaries and local market surveys, you are invited to visit my website blog at http://www.markthorngren.com.

Warmest Regards,
Mark Thorngren

Current Condo Price Trends in East Ventura County

2007-10-12T15:34:00.000-07:00

Hope this doesn’t look too involved, but it really is pretty interesting when you see where the numbers are heading.

First of all, there are 200 homes selected for this report from Westlake, Agoura, Newbury Park, Thousand Oaks and Camarillo. These are all 2 bedroom or larger with 2 bathrooms or more. The homes included are selling now, or have sold for between 400K and 500K. I can do this for any price range, but have picked the most common condo price range. I have excluded all senior communities from these listings. The list looks back over the last six months of our market.

From what I have been able to see, there have been very few price reductions on the active listings. We normally will see a five to ten thousand dollar difference between list price and sales price, but we can still compare the trends.

The homes currently listed (Active Category) are averaging about $466K for original price and curently listed for 459K after an average of 7 ½ weeks on the market. Owners have reduced their asking price an average of $7,000 after an average 53 days on the market (DOM).

Over the last six months, homes went into the Contingent – Backup Category after an additional 6 days on the market. These homes sold for an average of $5,000 less than their original price. From $470k to 465K.

Over the last six months, homes went into the Pending Category after an average 71 days or 10 weeks on the market. They listed at about 457K and went into escrow for about 452K on average.

The final category – Sold – is by far the largest category with 104 homes. Homes sold for an average of 455K after an average of 14 weeks on the market.

In October ’06 – 12 homes sold for an average of 468K; January ’07 - 20 homes sold for an average of 459K; and in April ’07 - 20 homes sold for an average of 456K. We are selling more homes now than six months ago, but their prices have dropped a bit – about 12K for this home category. I’m sure a good accountant or statistician would find plenty to criticise in this rough report, but I think the trend is clear. The market is weak in this market area. Prices have fallen.

When will they bottom out is anyone’s guess but it is also clear that there is a good sized inventory to pick the special bargains from. Interest rates have trended down in recent months as well. You can verify that for yourself in a number of places. How long the low interest rates will continue is also anyone’s guess.

It is more difficult to get easy terms and no money down loans than six months ago. That means that if you have no equity or much of a down payment, or if your credit is not the best, the process may be a bit more difficult and expensive than a year ago to receive a home loan.

I hope this information is useful to you. There are folks that I work with, who would be glad to help you investigate some of the innovative new California Home Mortgage Programs. It might help you to do a little homework along those lines before you start actively searching for a home. Let me know when you feel it would be a good time to get this valuable information, and I’ll be happy to schedule you for a free consultation with myself and a mortgage program expert.

As a buyer, you do not pay me a commission. However, buying a home without good knowledge of the home buying process or of the mortgage programs available – could be extremely expensive over time. I would be happy to help you receive the information you need to save thousands of dollars. Please tell me when you think it would be useful to get together and review some of your family needs.

Find more commentaries and market studies you are invited to visit my website blog http://www.markthorngren.com/

Warmest Regards,
Mark Thorngren

New Home Developments in West Ventura County

2007-10-12T15:26:00.000-07:00

I have done a little research on new home developments in Ventura County today for those of you who may be interested. All of these new developments are within 10 or 20 miles of the ocean. I have not included new developments in Moorpark, Simi Valley or Fillmore. Those developments are in a bit warmer climes further from the ocean. These developments are normally made up of neighborhoods with differing home types and styles. Most have HOA’s, a few have Mello Roos. There is a county tax of 1.25% of the sale price of each home in Ventura County. Some developments are large enough to have schools and even firehouses of their own. It is important for home buyers to understand, if a tract in a new home development sells out, they will eventually become available again when the original owner sells. Often the original seller is an investor trying to “flip” a property for a quick profit. That is difficult to do in today’s slower market, which means the investor is often stuck with a second mortgage for longer than he planned. That is good for buyers who can take advantage of the seller’s situation. These sales are normally handled through the local realtors and real estate consultants. Bottom line- there really isn’t such a thing as a sold out tract if you are patient.

Camarillo – Village in the Park
One of the largest new home developments is Village in the Park. This is an upscale planned community with 9 separate tracts and home styles, which sits just South of the 101 and square in the proposed FEMA flood plain between Camarillo and the ocean. This is a community which has it’s own school, YMCA, a Central Recreation Center, East Cove Recreation Area and a West Garden Recreation Area. As of this moment only Brookshire (485K to 510K) and Kensington Court (starts in low 900K’s ) are still “available”. HOA’s are based on square footage and run from $250 to $300 a month in Brookshire. The HOA’s at Village in the Park include water, sewer, trash, hazard insurance and maintenance of the common areas. That makes it a reasonable value for our area. There are incentives gallore and these include home upgrades, and a 10K closing cost give back for using their lender. Excellent maps, floorplans and general information can be found on their website. Http://www.villageatthepark.com/index.html.
The tract names are:
· Kensington Court
· Camden
· Brookshire
· Cedar Creek
· Hampton Roads
· Wickford
· Easton Crossing
· Addison Lane
· Madison

Oxnard – Riverpark – 1,800 homes along the Santa Clara River
The largest new home development currently being built in Oxnard is Riverpark There are 15 different home plans by my count, located just North off the 101, along the banks of the Santa Clara River. HOA’s vary by neighborhood, by square footage and by builder. Standard Pacific Homes is currently marketing the Celadon tract. Their HOAs can run from less than $100.00 up to nearly $300.00. There is also a 30 year Mello Roos which is about 1.1% but it is combined with a city special tax assessment. Agents in the development have told me to just multiply the Sale Price x 1.9 to get a rough idea of the combined total. Add the HOA and you will come close to your monthly fees. The HOA in the homes built by Standard Pacific Homes includes outside maintenance, landscaping and lender insurance – typically fire. Add these to your mortgage payment for your monthly housing costs. This does not include all utilities or your personal property insurance. Even with all the added costs, the homes tend to be very competitively priced with more floor space than I would expect. In one case that I know of, a home was offered for 70K below market with a special 6% give back at close of escrow. It was the last home in the tract and had fallen out of escrow previously. This was a nicely upgraded home in a nice location. Good things can happen. Call them to find out what is currently available or I can check for you if you prefer.
Shea Homes is offering the Market Street Tract of luxury townhomes. Plans 1 – 4 range in price from 486K for 2,362 sq ft to 545K for 2,631 sq ft. HOAs are up to $292 for Phase 2. This covers the Riverpark master association dues ($32) with the balance for Fire and Casualty Insurance of the building and exterior maintenance of the building. There is a property tax rate of 1.15% of the sale price, plus a Mello Roos Tax Assessment of $4,587 per year.
Several other tracts are still under construction. They have a new school opening there this Fall. There are very nice websitesq at http://www.riverparklife.com/ or http://www.standardpacifichomes.com/ or http://www.sheahomes.com/.
The tract names are:
· Celadon
· Destination
· Luminaria
· Market Street
· Promenade
· The Avenue
· Tradewinds
· Trellis
· Westerly
· Collage
· Meridian
· Morning View
· Veranda
· Waypoint
· Daybreak

Oxnard Seaside - Westport at Mandalay Bay, Seabridge at Mandalay, Harbor Island
Take a bunch of earth movers and dig a residential marina just North of, and eventually joined with, the previous Oxnard Harbor. Viola! You have Westport at Mandalay Bay, Seabridge at Mandalay, and Harbor Island. If you have a nice sailboat, motor cruiser or yacht – now you can live next to it. This is about as good as it gets for new tract homes. Many priced below 1M. The great location is reflected in the home prices.
Westport at Mandalay Bay - Very tony area, all newer homes – salted with a Vons and some smaller shops and restaurants. Some ocean view properties. Many of these homes are sold out, but again, homes can be had through local realtors as they become available the second time around. http://johnlainghomes.com/whitesails.
The tract names are:
· Lighthouse
· Villas
· Sea Cove
· Sea View
· Sea Side
· Whitesails

Seabridge at Mandalay - Extends just East of Westport at Mandalay Bay and includes 2 man-made islands. A bit more reasonably priced (or rather less prohibitively priced) Seabridge at Mandalay includes 6 individual tracts. Much of this development is still under construction. High rise condos are part of this offering and a Marina Village that contains 3 of the tracts guarding the central bridge.to Coral Island, and flanking the Southern Bridge to Shell Island. This will be a very impressive area when complete with tiny parks and plenty of public sidewalks around the marina. All inner marina properties, but the high rises should have a great view of the beach.
The tract names are:
· Port 121
· Port Oceano
· Port Marluna
· Port Meridian
· Port Province
· Port Haviland

Harbour Island – The island is actually a westward extension of Shell Island and pushes closer to the ocean. To be honest, I don’t know if there are any homes available there yet.

East Ventura - Chapel Lane - Just North of the Santa Clara River and a little East of Riverpark is a new and much smaller home development named Chapel Lane Lofts. Named after an historic church that was transplanted from downtown Ventura and which recently burned to the ground under mysterious circumstances, Chapel Lane Lofts should hopefully fare better. These are brand new 3 story townhomes with no Mellos Roos. The townhomes were built in “Loft A thru E” and in several phases as well. Each of the homes has a two car garage and an abundance of room. From 1,177 sq ft for 399k up to 2,026 sq ft for a bit over 500K these homes are a very good value. There are mountain views from most homes, although a mobile home park abutts the back of the property. There is talk by the listing agents of a new shopping center and coffee shop to be built a few blocks away. This is a semi- rural area, which means there is still a little crop land nearby. There is no Mello Roos. There is a 1% County Sales Tax instead of the normal 1.25%. All of the units have a $250 HOA which they promise will be reduced to $200 when all units have been built and occupied. The HOA includes water, trash, landscaping. There is a $6,000 dollar give back for closing expenses or to pay down interest rates on loans or for home upgrades. If a buyer uses their lender they receive an additional $2,000. There is no website for this development, but I can email or fax you information.
Again, these are just a few of the new home developments recently completed or nearing completion in the coastal parts of Ventura County. They are fairly representative of what can be found in new homes. All of the prices and fees I’ve quoted you come from the sales counselors at the developments. All of their literature bears the remark that “all information, prices and floor plans are subject to change without notice.”
All of these developments have experienced some slow sales in the last year but seem to be doing quite well now. As a result of the slower market, the developments I’ve named do cooperate with brokers throughout the area. This can be a significant advantage for new home buyers. Instead of the old “take it or leave it” experience prevalent a few years back, sellers are working much harder to entice buyers. Buyers who shop more ( ie – look at more than one development ) will often find a better match for their needs. Brokers from outside the developments often have a more comprehensive idea of what is available in the county since they are not constrained to any one home development. Outside lenders also love to compete with the developers own lenders and often are successful in lowering the mortgage of a potential buyer.
To be fair, my experience with the sales counselors in these developments has been quite positive. They know their own homes very well and have many incentives to entice buyers to buy their homes. My advantage is I know a little bit about most of the developments, enough to get you to the best developments for your needs, without any restrictions to what I can show you. I can also help you compare a wide range of mortgage programs without fear of loosing my job.

For more commentaries and local market surveys you are invited to visit my website blog at http://www.markthorngren.com.

Warmest Regards,
Mark Thorngren

Consulting Based on Data vs Wants & Needs

2007-10-12T14:45:00.000-07:00

Real Estate Consultants usually work at their hardest with a new client who has never bought a home before and with whom there is no previous relationship of trust. From my experience, most serious buyers and sellers review news data and use it to temper their decisions. Then they buy or sell regardless of the data and according to their personal wants and needs. This translates into allowing news data to help time their actions but rarely prevents them from accomplishing their goals.

Today we hear a great deal of negative information in the newspapers and on tv about our industry, about foreclosures, sub-prime loan problems ad nauseum. They represent data culled by "experts" most of whom have never sold a home in their lives. Sometimes I feel I could pick out their conclusions according to their author before I read their "data".

My challenge is often one of educating potential home buyers and sellers to the local market data and weening them away from generalized news data that often does not pertain to our local market. If I can help someone see immediate advantages, money saving opportunities and the fulfillment of their family dreams - to lead them through the fog of news misinformation, I feel I have done my job.

We are at our best when we serve our individual clients needs. We might be compared to tailors. You buy a suit or dress and we make it fit. Larger statistics are very subjective and prone to the writers point of view. I think you can sometimes tell a newspaper by the tone of its editorial. I have a science background myself and I do understand the importance of data, but when you focus on a specific market, the sharper you cut, the more you must qualify your results. Smaller markets act differently from larger markets. There is a science to statistical analysis, but many authors have a tendency to salt their large market data with smaller market characteristics. That’s like buying a suit off the rack at Target, tailoring one leg and calling it a tailored suit. It is, but it isn’t, and it looks pretty silly.

Some trends are easy to recognize and warn people about. The fall of hard money lenders and the subsequent tightening of lender standards. It’s easy to see day to day interest rate changes and catch short term trends. However, our current market is going through some very fundamental changes. Between falling home prices, tightening credit standards, the utter failure of the hard money lenders and uncertain interest rates, things are really changing from a few months ago. How long will interest rates continue upward? They just started trending upwards a few months ago, now they are easing back again. Conforming loans are having a significant impact on the cost of a home loan. Still, we have buyers waiting for homes to fall in price before they will committ to finding a new home. They simply do not understand the cost of a home is the cost of 2 things – the house itself and the mortgage for that home. They both have a price. Right now the cost of a mortgage is having a huge impact on monthly payments. Much more than the falling price of homes. I have tried to warn every one of my clients about this situation, I have even widely circulated an email article about this phenomenon, but it seems that few people recognize the danger.

As a Real Estate Consultant my job is to make people’s dreams come true. I work very hard to find the right home for each of my clients. Selling a home is a real challenge and often the marketing can be costly for realtors. I am totally committed to doing the best job I can for everyone I represent during the escrow process which follows. That is where the true value of my work is really felt. Most home buyers and sellers haven’t a clue of all the difficulties and complications that must be sorted through for an escrow to be successful. We have a list of 88 specific emergencies that can jeopardize an escrow and terminate a clients dreams for home ownership. We train hard to learn to recognize, plan for, and avoid these difficulties.

There are many excellent Realtors and Real Estate Consultants who feel the same way I do about putting our clients needs before our own. That usually translates into added marketing expense, time and effort to pave the road so my clients make their trip to home ownership or sales on a smooth comfortable roadway.

I specialize in looking for micro trends. I must know specific neighborhoods, and know how to find the data on any home and neighborhood. I will never suggest a sales price for a home seller or purchase price for a home buyer, without personally doing a Comparative Market Analysis for that specific home. If you ask me specific questions about a specific neighborhood, I can find you good data. If you ask me general questions about a town of 180,000 people, with various wildly different neighborhoods, my data will generalize. Does that make sense? I think if you would have asked me for price trend data in December of 2005, I would have shown you a very steep upwards curve that had already lasted several years. A buyer or seller would (and often did) make very critical decisions about their life savings that only a few months later proved to be very unfortunate. We have seen people as late as six months ago who still thought their home was on that same home value curve. People made very expensive decisions based on real but invalid trends. They were invalid because they were long term trends in a volatile market. Now we see all the foreclosures, all the bankruptcies and short sales.

Real Estate is as much to do with emotions, relationships and wants as it is about data. We must learn our clients personal needs and match them with the home market data. I can only find the right home if I take the time to get to know my clients. During consultations, we must go in depth to find motivations for buying a home. It is not unusual for a husband and wife to look at each other and remark that they were surprised at the answers the other gave.

If my clients are clear on their needs and expectations, I will be most likely successful in helping them. I will make sure the suit fits perfectly.That is when data for that specific home or neighborhood or loan program can become extremely relevant. On the other hand, a home must “feel right”. It can match the search criteria exactly, but if it does not “feel right” to my clients, they usually will not buy it. That is where knowing my clients “wants” is going to save us both a lot of time & effort. This is often very personal information and requires a great deal of mutual trust.

I want your business in the future. I will only have your business if your experience with me is beyond your expectations. I must protect your best interests by attending to over 100 pages of contractual details, negotiate and minimize your expenses, diligently consult with you to eliminate your frustrations and produce extraordinary results. If you are not outrageously happy with the level of my service to you, I will never see you again. Period. That is why I must temper data with your wants and needs. When you bring me your life savings and ask for my help, I intend to give you my very best.

For more commentaries and market surveys, you are invited to visit my website blog at http://www.markthorngren.com

Warmest Regards,
Mark Thorngren

Mortgage Review May Save Your Home

2007-10-12T14:39:00.000-07:00

At the risk of sounding like a commercial there is a growing problem among home owners we have spoken with. Use whomever you feel best meets your particular needs, but read this and see if it makes sense to you.

I don’t know if you know, but right now over 2 million people are in trouble and may loose their homes because they don’t know what kind of a loan they have.

If you have a friend, family member, business associate or neighbor who has obtained a mortgage within the last 5 years, they may not know what kind of loan they have. Many loans have a variable rate interest feature that typically adjusts upwards in 2 to 5 years.

More than 35% of the lenders who made those loans have gone out of business in the last year and there is nobody left to explain their loans. As rates adjust, many loan holders may find a significant increase in their monthly payments with little warning.

It is possible that some people will be able to avoid an increase in payments by refinancing. Just knowing what type of loan features you have, may make it possible to make plans to lessen the impact of an adjusting mortgage interest rate.

My Mortgage Specialists – Alicia Bacon and Dori Kenworthy from Yield Financial Corp are working with me to offer a free immediate review of these mortgage products to alert folks who might have some difficulty otherwise.

If you aren’t sure if you have a problem and want to avoid an unpleasant surprise, you are welcome to take advantage of this free opportunity. We’ll help you see what you have, and maybe we can suggest a few options to help you decide what to do.

Email or call me at Mark@movewest.com or phone (805) 504-0228.
(By the way, I am not myself a mortgage lender nor do I have any financial arrangements with the lenders I recommend. )

You can contact Alicia and Dori directly at:
Alicia@YieldFinancial.com or phone (805) 504-0225 or
Dori@YieldFinancial.com or phone (805) 504-0226.

For more commentaries and market surveys you are invited to visit my website blog at http://www.markthorngren.com .

Warmest Regards,
Mark Thorngren

Just for Fun - Halloween House Hunter

2007-10-09T11:32:00.000-07:00

Ring! ... Ring! ... Ring!
"Hello, Thanks for calling Movewest Realty, this is Mark. How can I help you?"
"Hello Mark. I'm new to the area, and I'm looking for a home. I saw your website and decided to give you a call. I'm what most people consider a senior citizen and I think I need your help."
"Certainly Sir, I'm a designated Senior Real Estate Specialist and I would be happy to help you."
"Well actually Mark, I'm a really, really senior citizen."
"I'm sure we all feel that way from time to time Sir, and by the way ... I'm afraid I didn't catch your name."
"Well Mark, most people just call me the Count."
"What a distinguished name. Well Count, what exactly are you looking for?"
"I have some rather special needs. I have to support a large and growing number of relatives and friends. Most of them just dropped by for a bite and never left. In fact, you might more accurately describe them as a bunch of blood sucking monsters."
"Gosh Count, that sounds like my old college fraternity."
"Well Mark, I'd be very surprised if your fraternity had the same severe initiation rites our group has."
"Lots of candles, hooded celebrants, secret chanting and screaming initiates... Count?"
"Well actually, yes Mark!"
"If you've been to one, you've been to them all Count. Fraternities are the same all over."
"I suppose there is some truth to that, but believe me Mark, ours is special. None of our members actually make it through initiation, but they all stay."
"Fascinating! Those folks must feel pretty worn out after their busy evening Count."
"Mark, they feel absolutely drained after the ceremony, but are soon actively seeking new members with the rest of us."
"Well Sir, what special needs do you have for your home search?"
"Well Mark, first we need a big place with a good security system ... a nice tall stone wall, wrought iron gates, a rural location off the beaten path. Ideally, it would be something to discourage solicitors, peddlers and angry pitchfork-toting mobs."
"Er.... right count. How about a swimming pool, tennis court or a 3 car garage?"
"Well we don't require any of those, but a stable big enough for a large black horse-drawn hearse and 6 huge ebony stallions would be a plus. A backyard with a good full moon exposure, and no digging restrictions would do nicely as well. We love to do some occasional 'planting' by moonlight."
"Very intriguing Count. What kind of things grow well at night?"
"Mark it isn't so much the growing but rather the planting which concerns us. I can truthfully say that what we plant, stays planted except for once a year on Halloween. That's when our garden really 'comes alive'."
"I would really like to find a large home. A home with a deep basement with space for torture...er...scientific research equipment, a belfry with lightning rods, and ramparts with a draw bridge would be excellent. It doesn't have to be new construction. We don't need cable TV, internet access, good cell phone reception or even electricity. Candles are what we use mostly."
"You folks sound very energy conscious Count. How about lots of big windows to take advantage of solar energy. You could buy an old church."
"Sorry Mark, but that absolutely will not work. The esthetics are just all wrong for me."
"Okay, what about an old stone farmhouse with maybe a big California wine cellar?"
"That would be much better Mark, but we won't be laying down any caskets of wine. Our caskets hold a uniquely different and older vintage. It is also very light sensitive."
"OK, but a bigger home could be very expensive Count."
"We've been pre-qualified through a number of lenders Mark. We can be very persuasive, and we always have our loans approved by the end of the day. In fact, some of our best, most juicy banking experiences have been arranged after dark."
"How extraordinary Count. May I ask how many bedrooms and bathrooms you will require?"
"None at all for me Mark, but a few guest bedrooms might be appropriate. Something large enough for canopied beds, solid wooden furniture, a few tapestries and long, dark draperies for the windows. The bedroom doors should be oak plank with iron hinges and locks. The doors probably ought to be soundproofed as well. We don't want to worry about our guests comfort. We want them to feel secure. We want them to feel like they can stay forever."
"OK Count, you said you are a senior citizen. Would you like to investigate a 1031 Exchange?"
"Actually Mark, we have done quite a bit of investing over the years. You could say that we work with the liquid assets of a large number of silent investors. We are also bringing into this transaction the proceeds from a sizeable European Estate Transaction. It was actually a huge fire sale. All the local villages attended and each of our assets was quickly liquidated."
"What a wonderful event Count!"
"Good and bad Mark. The terms of the fire sale were real killers, and of course a large number of villagers had been associated with the family business for many years. We hated to let them go. However, we do feel we'll be competitive here in America. I love a personal challenge, something I can really sink my teeth into."
"What is your business Count?"
"Well Mark, we have diversified over the years. We began in the warm beverage business, and through what might now be called hostile takeovers, we have increased our market share in some rather well known businesses. We actually coined the term 'The Big Gulp'. Our business plan is so strong now that we have expanded into many more fields. We just murder the competition. Our only real challenge now will be overcoming business restrictions mandated from State Government here in California. Fortunately, we feel confident that given a few years of working closely with our elected officials, we'll be able to convert them to our cause. After all, what we do isn't so very different from what they do."

Find out the value of homes near your castle. Visit http://www.searchcamarillohomes.com/
or to read additional commentaries and local market surveys you are invited to visit my website blog at http://www.markthorngren.com.

Warmest Regards,
Mark Thorngren